Calling 3 cold preflop

[Trix]

I asumed it would be 5 ways for 4 small bets at worst. So he is getting 4:1 in imidiate(cant spell it, hope you understand) odds, so he will have to make up for those 3.5:1 he is missing, plus a little more for when he hits and looses.
so 3.5*4SB (or 2BB as you say) = 14SB(ups [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]) or 7BBs.

[spamuell]

I just wrote a really long post explaining why your math was wrong, but deleted it because I suddenly realised we were talking about different things.

I'm talking about the total pot size, and you're talking about the money that needs to be put in after the flop. Sorry for the misunderstanding. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

EDIT:

I realised we were talking about different so I wrote the above explanation, but one of us is still wrong.

If we assume the set wins 100% of the time, the pot needs to be 15BB at the river in order to break even (7.5:1 on the original 2BBs). Your calculations show it needs to be 17BB (4*5 = 20SB pre-flop + the 14SB you mention post-flop).

Do you know where this difference arises?

N.B. It's "immediate" odds. I know English isn't your first language.

[Trix]

The 14 I mention is what hero needs to make from the other players postflop.

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Your calculations show it needs to be 17BB

[/ QUOTE ] It would need to be more, as hero will put bets in postflop aswell.

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If we assume the set wins 100% of the time, the pot needs to be 15BB at the river in order to break even (7.5:1 on the original 2BBs).

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Same, needs to be bigger as hero will put money in postflop.

[StellarWind]

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I dont think you should worry too much about that, as the chances that you both hit a set is pretty slim(He would have to hit in 2 cards).

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I don't agree with that. These are big pairs that will probably not be folded before the river (remember those implied odds we are assuming). That's four chances to hit a set--about 16%. The risk of hitting a set here and losing anyway is elevated and that needs to be considered.

[bernie]

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The table I'm at is VERY loose and usually pretty passive. They are not likely to make any sort of laydown so many showdowns are had with 3 or more players.

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Anticipating that many opponents, and the action postflop should you hit, id call. You know at least one likely has a high pair. That's a given. So you know you have to hit your set to continue.

You have to make at least 12 sbs/6 bbs postflop (32sbs - 20sbs from your opponents preflop already in when the action stops) if you hit to make it worth your while. And with this many opponents its very likely theyll pay off. Many of these guys will usually jam an overpair on the flop and a little on the turn before they think of a set.

The tough part is when you miss the flop. If lots of action, then you have to fold it as your effective odds for seeing the turn for 3 to 4 bets are shot. You wont likely recoup for a 22-1 shot what you will put in on the flop to see the turn.

Say you anticipate 3 bets possible on the flop. That means youd have to drag 66sbs to make it profitable. That's a tough row to hoe at that point.

By my count, you collected 7 extra sbs on top of your 8-1.

nice hand

b

[sthief09]

I agree that the chance that he flops a set and loses is a BIG factor here.

Odds that he runs into a bigger set, assuming a big pair is out

C(2,1)*C(46,3)/C(48,4) = 15.6%

48 cards, and since it's a big pair he's assumed to see the river. He gets 4 chances, since 1 will be your set card.

A set over set will occur about 12% of the time that he flops a set, assuming there's a 75% chance someone has a big pair. So overally he'll probably win only 85% of the time that he flops a set.

Now if there's TWO big pairs out, the situation gets much worse.