TT - when waiting to raise doesn't protect your hand

bozlax · #1 09-12-2005, 01:03 PM

This is actually a pretty good Paradise table. About 50% seeing the flop, not too much aggression without a hand...I liked it. No specific reads as I was only about 1 1/2 orbits in.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero ?

My thinking: I'm last-to-act against 2 other players, and the pot is 13SB to me. I can't protect my overpair by raising here, presenting the first 2 players with 14:1 to call. If I call and then raise the turn, the pot will be 8BB when it gets to me and I'll be giving any OESD or flush draw from the flop 10:1 to call. So, since I can't raise to protect, my inclination is to raise for value, "get my money in while I've got the best of it."

Is a raise here correct?

istewart · #2 09-12-2005, 01:05 PM

Raise. The turn bet is likely to come from UTG or it will be checked to you, so you're not going to be able to shut any hands out of the pot given your position anyway.

Russ McGinley · #3 09-12-2005, 01:07 PM

I'd raise. If the caller in between is on a flush draw, there is nothing you can do about it because he's going to call anyway. Push while you're still good.

TheKentock · #4 09-12-2005, 01:16 PM

What do we put UTG on here? Certainly not much that beats us. I see A8 and pretty much any high flush draw. I think that if he has the flush draw with two overs to your pair, you wait until the turn to raise since the turn card will give you a much better picture of where you stand compared to your opponent. Come to think of it, wasn't this hand or a very similar hand in SSHE?

Edit: I think it had to do with waiting for the turn to raise since you only have a small equity edge aganst a big draw like flush draw w/2 overs.

istewart · #5 09-12-2005, 01:17 PM

UTG has tons of hands here. Any straight draw, any 8, a lot of 7s, any spade draw, etc.

#6 09-12-2005, 01:20 PM

We raise here for value b/c we likely have the best hand. There are a ton of turn cards that are going to make us uneasy about raising.

Xhad · #7 09-12-2005, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We raise here for value b/c we likely have the best hand. There are a ton of turn cards that are going to make us uneasy about raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an argument for not raising. As in, you can wait and see if the turn wrecks your hand, then raise if it doesn't.

#8 09-12-2005, 02:06 PM

I disagree. My point is that we have a flush draw, str8 draw, board pairing, or any overcard is likely to make us fear raising. So there are like maybe 10 turn cards that we will want to raise. On top of that, we don't even know if someone on our right will even bet the turn. I say get the raise in now.

Aaron W. · #9 09-12-2005, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually a pretty good Paradise table. About 50% seeing the flop, not too much aggression without a hand...I liked it. No specific reads as I was only about 1 1/2 orbits in.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero ?

My thinking: I'm last-to-act against 2 other players, and the pot is 13SB to me. I can't protect my overpair by raising here, presenting the first 2 players with 14:1 to call. If I call and then raise the turn, the pot will be 8BB when it gets to me and I'll be giving any OESD or flush draw from the flop 10:1 to call. So, since I can't raise to protect, my inclination is to raise for value, "get my money in while I've got the best of it."

Is a raise here correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alternatively, you can raise on the turn if no overcards/flush cards fall, giving you more value out of your raise than a flop raise. (Bigger bets, more equity.)

dvashun · #10 09-12-2005, 02:44 PM

I fall on the wait for the turn side of this argument. I agree that there are a ton of cards that this hand does not want to see, but at this point in the hand the best situation you can hope for is the situation the OP mentioned. With an OESD, not containing a T, and a Flush draw, with the flush draw only containing one over, you are not the favorite. The range of hands at least has to contain these as possibilities. If UTG has a hand like 89s or A8 the TT becomes a slight favorite over the flush draw. However if the turn is a blank then TT becomes ~60 percent over the other two hands. I'd much rather call and wait before putting the hammer down when I have a greater edge.