Going against the numbers of eastbay's calc

[fluorescenthippo]

1) why isnt this a clear call? hes been raising all day and you have a great hand. if you had AK would you fold?

[david050173]

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1) why isnt this a clear call? hes been raising all day and you have a great hand. if you had AK would you fold?

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The argument is that the BB will have to survive at least 1 all in so you have a chance to squeak into the money.If you have a few more chips (lets say 1K) I think this is an easy fold. AK has a few less hands (AK and QQ) to worry about but I think I would play them the same.

Lets look at the possible ways this plays out
a) you both fold
other small stack has 200 chips you have 400. He goes all in the next hand. If he wins (probably slightly less than 50% chance) you are going to have to survive your blinds. Either way you are both fighting for 3rd.

b) you fold and he calls
If he wins your in big trouble (400 chips to 1400). He will probably win about 30-40% of the time. Again if he loses you are going to have a very hard time getting better than 3rd.

c) you call and he folds
You are probably either a 3:1 favorite or a coinflip. Throw it all together and less say your ~60% favorite to win. If you win you will have 1600 chips which will be stack big enought to have a shot at 1st

d) you both call. This one is hard to evaluate BB could have almost anything and the raiser is about the same. You are probably ~40% to win this but if you lose, half the time you are splitting 3rd place money

In the end I push this because I hate seeing the BB survive and ending up having to put all your chips in with 73o.

[J-Lo]

Yes, as someone said, the stack sizes i posted were rounded. I posted that hand because it was a much closer decision, than the hand that actually played out. I think my situtation is a clearer fold-- i think? Here the the real hand... which i folded. I guess if i call i give myself a real shot at first, but with pocket so low, i feel waiting to eek into the money is the smarter play-- because i give him too much equity if i bust out now.

Seat 1: pocketIUcard (590)
Seat 3: Xena7777 (3110)
Seat 5: honest27off (3180)
Seat 9: addicted777 (1120)
addicted777 posts small blind (200)
pocketIUcard posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to addicted777 [ Ac, Qd ]
Xena7777 folds.
honest27off raises (800) to 800
addicted777....?

[Mammux]

I would never ever fold in that situation. Might call and then push any flop.

-Magnus

[Nottom]

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Yes, as someone said, the stack sizes i posted were rounded. I posted that hand because it was a much closer decision, than the hand that actually played out. I think my situtation is a clearer fold-- i think? Here the the real hand... which i folded. I guess if i call i give myself a real shot at first, but with pocket so low, i feel waiting to eek into the money is the smarter play-- because i give him too much equity if i bust out now.

Seat 1: pocketIUcard (590)
Seat 3: Xena7777 (3110)
Seat 5: honest27off (3180)
Seat 9: addicted777 (1120)
addicted777 posts small blind (200)
pocketIUcard posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to addicted777 [ Ac, Qd ]
Xena7777 folds.
honest27off raises (800) to 800
addicted777....?

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Well thats a pretty big difference form the original post. I think this is a pretty clear fold with the BB basically having to call and you having almost 2.5BBs left (and whatever tiny FE that goes with that) if you let it go.

[eastbay]

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$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


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My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

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i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?


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Sounds like it, yes. You need to specify what the raiser is raising with. This is the key to the decision.

eastbay

[david050173]

I think this is an much easier fold. If the small stack busts out you can push and if you double up you are right back in it. On the other hand if he wins you are the short stack with a little folding equity.

I guess this sort of comes down to a read. If the button is pushing any two, I think I have to call rather than risk the BB doubling up. If I think the button is a favorite over a random hand I might let him gamble.

An offshoot: Your in the BB in this situation and the SB pushes. What hand would you need to call? I am thinking AA-TT and AK but I wondering if that is two loose. Against two hands TT and JJ might be easy folds.