I really hate pocket pairs...

[@bsolute_luck]

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Hmm, this is interesting, I lead out almost specifically to try and get it HU. Could you elaborate more? You think we should try and trap him, because he (if we are afraid of him anyway,) shares outs with the PFR? I think I'm misunderstanding something.

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well other's have already said they like leading out, so i'm in the minority and could be way off. anyhoo: i think you understand at least MY thinking. either the cold caller has a small pocket pair (which is cold called often) or overcards, which either the PFR has and we have to dodge overcards anyways or the PFR has a high pocket pair and we're behind to them anyways. i don't think getting it HU is as important as figuring whether we're ahead/behind to the PRF.

[deception5]

If UTG was weak and MP2 was aggressive, going for a check/raise might be an interesting option as we might force UTG to fold a better hand and MP2 might be betting a worse pair.

[Eeegah]

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Yeah it would be our last chance to get J's or 10's to fold as I'm not betting this for value.

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But how often will that happen? Let's do some algebra.

I'll assume that all combinations of hands are equally likely for now, and that he's not folding an A or K. I'm also putting him on a somewhat sane raising range of AA-TT, AK-AT, KQ, KJs. Finally, I'm assuming he's as likely to fold QQ as he is TT, as I don't see why that should make a difference.

Thus, he isn't folding:
AA (1)
KK (3)
AK (6)
AQ (8)
AJ (8)
AT (8)
KQ (12)
KJs (3)

But we might bluff him off QQ, JJ or TT, 6 combinations each. Thus we have a chance of bluffing him off of 18 out of 69 possible hands. Our bluff is profitable if

(chance of having QQ-TT) * (chance of folding) > (pot odds)


Since we're risking 1 bet to win 4.25, if we let x be the chance of folding we have

(18/69) * x > 1/4.25

and solving for x yields
x > (1/4.25) * (69/18), or just above 90%.

Are you 90% sure that he'll fold QQ-TT if he has it?

[aces_dad]

I'll accept that it's hard to be 90% sure of any other player's actions except ourselves. If I notice villian seemed to think about the flop call for a while this makes me be more inclined to lead out the turn.

And since he didn't raise the flop, unless we know he likes to wait until the turn to pop his strong hands, we should be able to discount the likelyhood of him holding an A now.

[bjarne]

I'd play it the same way preflop since MP2 is in the hand as well. If I was UTG+1 or something like that I'd 3-bet preflop
to isolate and get the blinds.

I'd bet out the flop and then let go if called or raised.

[SavageMiser]

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3-bet this preflop.

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Would you explain why? Against an UTG raise, I'm not liking 99 very much, especially out of position. My line would be call the raise and hope to hit a set or a low flop. Too passive?

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Do you only raise when you have the best hand? Three-betting preflop can do lots of good things for you at a relatively cheap cost. UTG may cap, letting you narrow his holdings and maybe fold out MP2. If they call, you've taken the initiative, which helps when your position sucks. Three-betting can lead them to mistakenly put you on a better hand. It also make your post-flop decisions a lot easier.

All that -- and more! -- for a measly SB. I'll take it.

[Eeegah]

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Would you explain why?

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Because 99 is the best hand in poker, and everyone knows it. Watch:

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Oh yeah.