I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[666]

I am highly disappointed in the PF play, but that is definitely the least important part of this hand. I think your line is check/call here. I think you are probably behind more often than you are ahead here.

[Evan]

One more thing, folding the turn should be considered.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing, folding the turn should be considered.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think I'm drawing dead that often?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing, folding the turn should be considered.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, especially if we are even considering folding the river.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
if we are even considering folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
We're not.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
For the bet/callers, what are you guys putting the BB on when he raises the turn that the river K changes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Shant. This guy isn't horribly aggressive post-flop. What worse hand is he raising the river with. A better question is what worse hand is he raisint the Turn with?

The only possible hand that we beat that I think BB holds is KQ. He called PF so KQ, KJ, K9clubs, MAYBE K6s but I doubt it. QT is a VERY real possibility as is 99. (he seems pretty tight w/ PFRs). Maybe 66 but I doubt it since he's probably folding the flop (?).

Biggest case for a fold is that he has gone from passively calling PF, cold-calling the flop, waking up on the Turn.

I aggree that it's tough to lay down and the river probably causes us to lose even 2 more bets.

8 likely K combos (out of which we beat 4 KQ)

16 QT combos

3 99 combos

so let me check my math w/ you guys --

27 - 4 = 23 / 4 = 5.75:1 (is this part correct... we are losing 5.75 times for every one time??) 1/6.65 = 14.8 % of the time we beat his possible holdings (????).

is it ok to just do 4/27 instead? It's the same fricken number.

Fold turn.

EDIT: Changed mis-typed "7.75" to "6.75"

[jskills]

Just might have to check / call the river. I can't see donking. I was thinking C/R at first, but BB calling two cold on turn is odd no? Smells like he flopped a set?

[bobbyi]

Raise preflop.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing, folding the turn should be considered.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. We're getting odds to call down for a split: 14.5/2. If his has range is AA, JJ, 99, AKs or AKo we still have 21% equity on the turn.

Here is our river equity given the same hand range:

Board: Kh Jh 9s 6d Ks

equity (%)
62.5000 % { AA, JJ, 99, AKs, AKo }
37.5000 % { AKo }

As everyone can see, anything other than a check-call is wrong. Even if you add in KQs, QQ as possibilities, check-calling is still the best plan. We have to add KQo before we can consider anything but a check-call.

[Evan]

What's the matter Jeff, no love for QT?