AQ TPTK..who makes this call?

[DVC Calif]

From last night's $11R/$25k GTY. About 20 minutes into the second hour, so the R/A madness has settled down....somewhat. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

My read on Villain is that he is on the flush draw. He's been pushing his draws strong all first hour and still continues to play LAG.

I have TPTK but is that good enough to risk a third of my stack on? Or is that weak-tight? My gut is telling me I have him right now but that damn river has been killing me all week.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

BB (t5725)
Hero (t17300)
UTG+1 (t18235)
MP1 (t4250)
MP2 (t14000)
MP3 (t7065)
CO (t7675)
Button (t5405)
SB (t19550)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t450, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1125) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t950</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t7225</font>, Hero ...?

[tiger7210]

I would insta call here if he's been Laggy. Too many players just don't come out of the rebuy mentality and his range here can be extremely wide t o include both the straight draw and flush draw.

I think if he had flat called or put in a standard reraise you may have more to worry about here but his push generally doesn't want a call.

Sorry if he sucked out.

[A_PLUS]

This is what I think about when something like this happens. This only when I think the opponent is LAG, or I have no read.

If I am not going to play this hand, with this flop, what hands am I going to play?

Am I good enough to win this tournament, laying down TPTK in this spot?

Why did he make that bet? Does he want me to call?

[tipperdog]

At a LL event like this, I call nearly 100% of the time. If he's outplayed me with a set, so be it. But I think you're looking at KQ or a flush draw a very high percentage of the time.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
At a LL event like this, I call nearly 100% of the time. If he's outplayed me with a set, so be it. But I think you're looking at KQ or a flush draw a very high percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
what he said, though I think he's underestimating the sets some and underestimating the junk two pair and junk top pair hands.

[locutus2002]

I call.

I wouldn't be surprised if villain showed me q9 or KK, but I think you are ahead of most of the hands that a LAGy player can push. I think you have to be convinced that villain is capable of making a move here with a worse queen, otherwise I don't like the call.


Here's my back of the envelope range for hands villain can push with.
Villains ahead:
AA 3 ways
KK 6 ways
99 3 ways
44 3 ways
Q9 6 ways
total 21 ways

Villains behind:
KQ 8 ways
QJ 8 ways
QT 8 ways
Q8 8 ways
maybe TT, JJ but I'm excluding these to be conservative.
total 32 ways.

I think he also pushes KTh, KJh, JTh, J8h, T8h and they are roughly a coin flip.

I think you won't be crippled if villain has you beat, so grit your teeth and call.