AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
From last night's $11R/$25k GTY. About 20 minutes into the second hour, so the R/A madness has settled down....somewhat. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
My read on Villain is that he is on the flush draw. He's been pushing his draws strong all first hour and still continues to play LAG. I have TPTK but is that good enough to risk a third of my stack on? Or is that weak-tight? My gut is telling me I have him right now but that damn river has been killing me all week. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter BB (t5725) Hero (t17300) UTG+1 (t18235) MP1 (t4250) MP2 (t14000) MP3 (t7065) CO (t7675) Button (t5405) SB (t19550) Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t450, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. Flop: (t1125) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t950</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t7225</font>, Hero ...? |
Re: AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
I would insta call here if he's been Laggy. Too many players just don't come out of the rebuy mentality and his range here can be extremely wide t o include both the straight draw and flush draw.
I think if he had flat called or put in a standard reraise you may have more to worry about here but his push generally doesn't want a call. Sorry if he sucked out. |
Re: AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
This is what I think about when something like this happens. This only when I think the opponent is LAG, or I have no read.
If I am not going to play this hand, with this flop, what hands am I going to play? Am I good enough to win this tournament, laying down TPTK in this spot? Why did he make that bet? Does he want me to call? |
Re: AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
At a LL event like this, I call nearly 100% of the time. If he's outplayed me with a set, so be it. But I think you're looking at KQ or a flush draw a very high percentage of the time.
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Re: AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
[ QUOTE ]
At a LL event like this, I call nearly 100% of the time. If he's outplayed me with a set, so be it. But I think you're looking at KQ or a flush draw a very high percentage of the time. [/ QUOTE ] what he said, though I think he's underestimating the sets some and underestimating the junk two pair and junk top pair hands. |
Re: AQ TPTK..who makes this call?
I call.
I wouldn't be surprised if villain showed me q9 or KK, but I think you are ahead of most of the hands that a LAGy player can push. I think you have to be convinced that villain is capable of making a move here with a worse queen, otherwise I don't like the call. Here's my back of the envelope range for hands villain can push with. Villains ahead: AA 3 ways KK 6 ways 99 3 ways 44 3 ways Q9 6 ways total 21 ways Villains behind: KQ 8 ways QJ 8 ways QT 8 ways Q8 8 ways maybe TT, JJ but I'm excluding these to be conservative. total 32 ways. I think he also pushes KTh, KJh, JTh, J8h, T8h and they are roughly a coin flip. I think you won't be crippled if villain has you beat, so grit your teeth and call. |
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