|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why does no one fold to turn raises?
Deranged:
[ QUOTE ] Think about the mathematics of semi-bluffing here: With 8 outs to the nuts here and possible clean overcards, let's estimate your total number of outs at 10-12. So your chance of improving here will be between 22-26%. We'll use 24% for estimation. Let's say your opponent will fold to the turn raise with frequency "f." Then for the semi-bluff to be profitable you need to satisfy the following inequality (let p = pot size before your semi-bluff raise; namely, including the bet and your call on the turn but not the raise). We exclude the effect of implied odds and the possibility for villain to re-raise the turn. We also do not yet consider possibility hero hits a K or Q and loses. f*p + (1-f)(.24p - .76) > .24p .76f*p > .76(1-f) f(p+1) > 1 In other words, your fold equity (f(p+1)) has to be greater than the cost of the bet. Given the pot size, opponent will be needing to fold here like 14-15% of the time for your play to be profitable. So the question is not really one of "never." It should be one of "how often." Don't worry if your semi-bluffs seem to often not work... they're not supposed to. If you actually get the sense that they are "never" working (like < 10% of the time) then you should cut down on them. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent post...very helpful. So, given my situation, you don't think he folds 15% of the time? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why does no one fold to turn raises?
The most important features in determining this "fold frequency" number are reads and board texture. Note the board here is pretty uncoordinated, and your opponent will not often fold a pair here. The J is not the most threatening turn card here, either, though it is nice that it's an overcard to the 10. Many opponents don't ever like folding flopped top pair.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why does no one fold to turn raises?
Deranged:
[ QUOTE ] Note the board here is pretty uncoordinated, and your opponent will not often fold a pair here [/ QUOTE ] I actually thought this gave my semi-bluff a bit more strength....as he may not have much to draw to if he thinks he is behind and might lend a bit more cedibility to my raise. [ QUOTE ] The J is not the most threatening turn card here, either, though it is nice that it's an overcard to the 10. [/ QUOTE ] If the flop were J high and the T turned, I think I don't make the raise. Thanks for you input. |
|
|