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#11
11-17-2005, 04:13 AM
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Re: Show this down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Does anyone fold this? [/ QUOTE ] God no! I'm leading the turn and calling down a raise. [/ QUOTE ] Spew. [/ QUOTE ] No. [ QUOTE ] Two possibilities: 1. Flush draw that he's pumping. [/ QUOTE ] So he checks now, which really sux for our hand. [ QUOTE ] 2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair. [/ QUOTE ] What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here. 
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#12
11-17-2005, 04:16 AM
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Re: Show this down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair. [/ QUOTE ] What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here. [/ QUOTE ] gimme some of that crack (throw AK in here too)
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#13
11-17-2005, 04:56 AM
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Re: Show this down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair. [/ QUOTE ] What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here. [/ QUOTE ] gimme some of that crack (throw AK in here too) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I just skipped that for some reason, but I think the only hands he has here any appreciable amount that beat us are AJ and A6. 66 is a possibility but there's only 1 combo out there. J6 is just absurdly loose, and AK, AA, JJ are not that likely for a CC'er.
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#14
11-17-2005, 07:57 AM
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Re: Show this down?
Bet the turn and c/r the flop
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#15
11-17-2005, 10:41 AM
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Re: Show this down?
I suffer the same fate when it comes to calling down -- I hate to do it seems like a lot of $$ get wasted. Although I really really dont like to call down in this case I would. Here is my rationale which is pretty much the same as the other posters in general. The simple answer is your getting 14 to 1 on the call:
Looks like the hands that beat you are: AA,AK,AJ, JJ and 66 for a total of 34 hands given 2 aces already out. In addition, there are hands that could be played like that ( depending on the opponent ) to drive you out such as ATs-A2s, KK, and QQ for a total of 30 hands so of the 64 proabable hands 53% win 47% loose at most 50-50 so givien that you are getting 14 to 1 odds you cant fold. Not sure I did all this right but I have been trying to apply this logic to my river calls when I think I am beat. If I thought my oppoent only riased for value then I would have to revaluate the hand and consider folding earlier.
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#16
11-17-2005, 11:07 AM
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Re: Show this down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair. [/ QUOTE ] What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here. [/ QUOTE ] gimme some of that crack (throw AK in here too) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I just skipped that for some reason, but I think the only hands he has here any appreciable amount that beat us are AJ and A6. 66 is a possibility but there's only 1 combo out there. J6 is just absurdly loose, and AK, AA, JJ are not that likely for a CC'er. [/ QUOTE ] You're assigning way too much significance to the preflop coldcall and way not enough significance to the postflop cap. When you raise preflop, an A hits, and you three-bet, villain knows you have top pair. He's obviously not too worried about it. You should be.
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#17
11-17-2005, 11:12 AM
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Re: Show this down?
A call down is not bad, but I don't see many hands we beat here. He has to assume we have an A and he still capped the flop. I don't think a fold is too bad here. Tough decision either way.
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#18
11-17-2005, 12:55 PM
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Re: Show this down?
What jrz and RamRod said is basically what I was thinking during the hand. But the size of the pot kept me going (I kept think 'Ed would scream at me if I layed down TP2K in this big pot')
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#19
11-17-2005, 11:40 PM
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Re: Show this down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair. [/ QUOTE ] What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here. [/ QUOTE ] gimme some of that crack (throw AK in here too) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I just skipped that for some reason, but I think the only hands he has here any appreciable amount that beat us are AJ and A6. 66 is a possibility but there's only 1 combo out there. J6 is just absurdly loose, and AK, AA, JJ are not that likely for a CC'er. [/ QUOTE ] You're assigning way too much significance to the preflop coldcall and way not enough significance to the postflop cap. When you raise preflop, an A hits, and you three-bet, villain knows you have top pair. He's obviously not too worried about it. You should be. [/ QUOTE ] You're giving 1/2 players way too much credit.
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#20
11-18-2005, 12:36 AM
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Re: Show this down?
I haven't look at what the others said, but there is no way I would fold this river. It's not an option.
Your decision to call down is not on the river, but on the turn. On this turn, we have an easy call since the 6 is a good card for us that gives us 2 more tying outs against AJ or AK. It also makes it 3 times less likely that we are up against 66. I estimate that if we are behind we usually have 2 outs to win and 3 outs to tie. This gives us about 3.5 outs with possibility that we are still ahead or tied. So I call given 12-1. On the river the J is also a good card since it reduces the chances that we are against AJ. I certainly call with those 14-1 pot odds. Once in a while Villain could have overplayed an AT or a big draw, or you could be tied with AQ. Also villain cold called preflop, so if he is the type to 3 bet AA, AK, JJ, there is only 5 "logical" hands that beat you: 66 (1x) and AJ (4 times).
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