Bad Time to Peel One Off?

[MyTurn2Raise]

at most it's 7...what do your opponents have? IMCO, I think you have to heavily discount that number based on the possible holdings of your opponents.

[TheHammer24]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you really have?

[/ QUOTE ]

My immediate guess was 7 (3 Kings, 2 deuces, 2 for BDFD). Is this incorrect thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes thats incorrect. The only time outs are clean is if they are to the nuts. Your opponent may have KK, 22, 66, 55, A2, 34, or a set, in which case if you hit the card you thought was an out it in fact was not. Also 2 outs for BDFD is too much. I though 1.5 was more reasonable.

[SippinSoma]

I meant 17:2 (8.5:1 in my OP).

Now think about how wide the hand ranges currently are, given all the hands that play this way. I think the hands you specified are a very small percentage.

[soweak.]

[ QUOTE ]
...what do your opponents have?

[/ QUOTE ]

CO can have a lot of hands, Overcards, overpairs, maybe A6s.

UTG: My immediate guess was an overpair. I see this bet from these types of players, putting the PFR on two big cards. His bet didn't make sense for a set or flopped straight.

SB: Some piece of the flop, gutshot, overpair, overcards, or two-pair I can outdraw.

[W. Deranged]

Getting 8.5 to 1, I think this is pretty damn neutral or maybe very slightly +EV.

I think you have to consider that your two pair/trips outs are dirty. Like 3.5-ish outs total. Plus 1.5 for the BDFD.

So we have (5 outs)/(47 cards left) which is very, very slightly higher than 1/9.5 which represents our odds.

It's pretty much a push. Maybe lean toward calling. We'll hit here sometimes and lose, and may need to call one more when we pick up draws, but I don't think these totally outweigh further implied odds.

So I think it's a very, very thin call, probably.

I agree in counting this as around 5 outs, which would be close to even money if we were closing the action with two bets. The situation is however like this:

For two bets on the flop, we are not giving up much if anything by folding, but can equally well play the hand.
For three or more bets we are clearly wrong to call.

Since we are either even money or loosing money, I fold.

[invictus33]

Why on earth would you cold call two bets with bottom pair, a weak/tight who just decided to go on a raising spree and sitting with maybe 5 clean outs?

If you call this it's going to be one of the hands that you look back on and wonder wtf you were thinking cold calling with trash.

[Nick C]

I would probably call, but I wouldn't be too happy about it.