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-   -   Bad Time to Peel One Off? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=331232)

soweak. 09-06-2005 11:38 PM

Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
CO is a typical weak/tight TAG. Rest of the players are loose passive calling stations.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, Hero ???

sy_or_bust 09-06-2005 11:41 PM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
This is a similar situation to "a hand from the archives" that jason t just posted. You're missing a backdoor straight draw, but your king has some extra potential. I'd fold, but it might be an interesting decision.

soweak. 09-06-2005 11:44 PM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
I was thinking the same thing as it came around back to me.

SippinSoma 09-06-2005 11:56 PM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
Easy peel homie. 8.5:1, 6.5 outs.

MyTurn2Raise 09-07-2005 12:08 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
fold...UTG (described as loose-passive) bet into TAG CO pre-flop raiser. He's either feeling around for an overpair (not a typical donk move), or he hit the flop pretty well (pair w straight draw, two pair, set). In addition, tight, weakCO raised that bet. Maybe an AK, most likely (&gt;90%) better.

How many outs do you really have?

TheHammer24 09-07-2005 12:08 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
Easy? I disagree. You aren't closing the action and your hand is gross. The pot is huge though. All 5 outs for the K and the 2 are not necessarily clean. I'll say 4 outs and 1.5 for your back door flush draw. You are getting 15:2 immediate odds and you're about 7:1 dog to make your hand on the turn. However, we must consider effective odds for your backdoor draw meaning you will have to put in extra bets on the turn. Not closing the action, weak hand, it's not one you want to call down with, I fold in this situation.

SippinSoma 09-07-2005 12:10 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

TheHammer24 09-07-2005 12:16 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

[/ QUOTE ]

17:2. He has to cold call here.

Also, A2, KK, 34, 66, 22, 55.

MyTurn2Raise 09-07-2005 12:18 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
raiser could have KK. UTG might have set.

Redraws likely. If UTG doesn't have set, he's very likely on a two pair or pair with inside straight. Cutoff raiser can draw out to bigger two pairs if he has aces.

Plus, you might be stuck for 4! bets on flop.

soweak. 09-07-2005 12:19 AM

Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you really have?

[/ QUOTE ]

My immediate guess was 7 (3 Kings, 2 deuces, 2 for BDFD). Is this incorrect thinking?


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