Flop

[Justin A]

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The next very important consideration is folding equity. Right now we give ourselves the ace and queen outs. But there is a fairly good chance villain will fold the turn on other cards like kings, jacks, tens, etc so you are effectively buying yourselves more outs.


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So let me get this now. MP is enough of a "thinking player" that he can lay down to sfer's bet when a card like a King or a Jack falls but not enough of a "thinking" player to either three-bet the flop after intentionally betting into the pre-flop raiser for hand protection purposes or calling the flop and betting most turn cards. I guess if we have such control over our villain here then I object less to raising. But I am still dubious and see some ex post facto rationalizations (i.e., "thinking" player is now assumed to be willing to do behave in exactly the manner that make the Hero's raising decision correct).

In any event,. I never thought the raise was awful but I still like caling better. As for the characterization that just calling is terrible, well I clearly disagree. Anyway, I have nothing more to add here tha I have not already said several times now.

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Very well put.

[sfer]

Great to meet you too. Villain was the player between me and your friend. Your buddy folded before the flop like a good boy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[sfer]

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The next very important consideration is folding equity. Right now we give ourselves the ace and queen outs. But there is a fairly good chance villain will fold the turn on other cards like kings, jacks, tens, etc so you are effectively buying yourselves more outs.


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So let me get this now. MP is enough of a "thinking player" that he can lay down to sfer's bet when a card like a King or a Jack falls but not enough of a "thinking" player to either three-bet the flop after intentionally betting into the pre-flop raiser for hand protection purposes or calling the flop and betting most turn cards. I guess if we have such control over our villain here then I object less to raising. But I am still dubious and see some ex post facto rationalizations (i.e., "thinking" player is now assumed to be willing to do behave in exactly the manner that make the Hero's raising decision correct).

In any event,. I never thought the raise was awful but I still like caling better. As for the characterization that just calling is terrible, well I clearly disagree. Anyway, I have nothing more to add here tha I have not already said several times now.

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Very well put.

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Let's say for a moment that we don't know which is better. The decision is still not close IMO because if I'm going to make a mistake, it's going to be a 1 SB mistake and not a 13 SB mistake. If the hand were identical except that the two limpers and the BB were out so it was only 6 SBs I would call.

[sfer]

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10 handed Borgata game.

2 terrible limpers, one thinking player limps in MP immediately behind, I raise Ah Qh in the hijack, thinking but tilting button calls, SB folds, terrible BB calls, limpers call. 6 players, 12.5 SBs.

Flop is 8s 5h 3c. BB and donks check, thinking MP bets, what's my action and is it close?

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I raise, folds back to a limper on the thinking player's right who coldcalls, thinking player calls.

Turn is the Ac. Check/check/bet/call/call.

River is the As. Check/check/bet/call/fold and obviously MHIG.

[Fnord]

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In any event,. I never thought the raise was awful but I still like caling better. As for the characterization that just calling is terrible, well I clearly disagree. Anyway, I have nothing more to add here tha I have not already said several times now.

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The only part of this thread I disagree with is "it's not close." If it wasn't close then why so much debate?

[colgin]

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The next very important consideration is folding equity. Right now we give ourselves the ace and queen outs. But there is a fairly good chance villain will fold the turn on other cards like kings, jacks, tens, etc so you are effectively buying yourselves more outs.


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So let me get this now. MP is enough of a "thinking player" that he can lay down to sfer's bet when a card like a King or a Jack falls but not enough of a "thinking" player to either three-bet the flop after intentionally betting into the pre-flop raiser for hand protection purposes or calling the flop and betting most turn cards. I guess if we have such control over our villain here then I object less to raising. But I am still dubious and see some ex post facto rationalizations (i.e., "thinking" player is now assumed to be willing to do behave in exactly the manner that make the Hero's raising decision correct).

In any event,. I never thought the raise was awful but I still like caling better. As for the characterization that just calling is terrible, well I clearly disagree. Anyway, I have nothing more to add here tha I have not already said several times now.

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Very well put.

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Let's say for a moment that we don't know which is better. The decision is still not close IMO because if I'm going to make a mistake, it's going to be a 1 SB mistake and not a 13 SB mistake. If the hand were identical except that the two limpers and the BB were out so it was only 6 SBs I would call.

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There is no way that failing to raise is 13SB mistake; you are way overstating this. Even if you were correct there is no way that raising here jumps you to 100% pot equity.

It's like when you face a tough river decision when your opponent bets into you when a death card comes on the river and you now face a very scary coordinated board (say 3 or 4 straight + 3 or 4 flush) holding only a pocket pair or some such. But the pot is big so you consider calling. The rationale is often said that a call only costs 1 BB while a fold could cost you the whole pot, say for example 12BBs. Well, in those situations if a fold is incorrect it is clearly not a 12BB mistake since you are very often toast on the mega-ugly board. If it is a mistake it is likely a small one.

Edit: I think this one has been beaten to death with both sides clearly established. I don't think either camp will convince the other. That said I thought this was an excellent thread and exemplifies why I learn so much here. This thread definitely raised some important concepts and made me reexamine thoroughly my intuitions about play of overcards and gave me food for thought when facing these situations in the future. Regards to all.

[sfer]

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The next very important consideration is folding equity. Right now we give ourselves the ace and queen outs. But there is a fairly good chance villain will fold the turn on other cards like kings, jacks, tens, etc so you are effectively buying yourselves more outs.


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So let me get this now. MP is enough of a "thinking player" that he can lay down to sfer's bet when a card like a King or a Jack falls but not enough of a "thinking" player to either three-bet the flop after intentionally betting into the pre-flop raiser for hand protection purposes or calling the flop and betting most turn cards. I guess if we have such control over our villain here then I object less to raising. But I am still dubious and see some ex post facto rationalizations (i.e., "thinking" player is now assumed to be willing to do behave in exactly the manner that make the Hero's raising decision correct).

In any event,. I never thought the raise was awful but I still like caling better. As for the characterization that just calling is terrible, well I clearly disagree. Anyway, I have nothing more to add here tha I have not already said several times now.

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Very well put.

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Let's say for a moment that we don't know which is better. The decision is still not close IMO because if I'm going to make a mistake, it's going to be a 1 SB mistake and not a 13 SB mistake. If the hand were identical except that the two limpers and the BB were out so it was only 6 SBs I would call.

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There is no way that failing to raise is 13SB mistake; you are way overstating this. Even if you were correct there is no way that raising here jumps you to 100% pot equity.

It's like when you face a tough river decision when your opponent bets into you when a death card comes on the river and you now face a very scary coordinated board (say 3 or 4 straight + 3 or 4 flush) holding only a pocket pair or some such. But the pot is big so you consider calling. The rationale is often said that a call only costs 1 BB while a fold could cost you the whole pot, say for example 12BBs. Well, in those situations if a fold is incorrect it is clearly not a 12BB mistake since you are very often toast on the mega-ugly board. If it is a mistake it is likely a small one.

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I don't need anywhere near 100% pot equity and you know that. If the button folds and everyone else still calls that's still not a bad result.

Also, your example is totally insignificant to this hand. I'm not facing a showdown decision, and I don't have a call/fold decision. I'm in a fluid situation where there are clear advantages to taking the lead and narrowing the field. Period. There are 13 SBs in the pot. At some pot-size surely you think raising is obvious, right?

[Lmn55d]

his point is valid that this cannot possibly be a 13sb mistake. IMO, the pot would have to be in the 100s for this to be true.

[sfer]

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his point is valid that this cannot possibly be a 13sb mistake. IMO, the pot would have to be in the 100s for this to be true.

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So insert "might" into the sentence. If it "might" be a 1 BB mistake or it "might" be a 13 SB mistake then I have an easy choice. If you need 100s of SBs in the pot to raise the flop you shouldn't be gambling.

[Lmn55d]

no man, that's not what I said. I don't need 100s to raise the flop. What I said was that there's no way the average EV of calling is 13sb worse than raising, which is also what colgin is saying.