WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman

[The Student]

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I don't like your turn bet of 1500 - it kind of gives away that you dont have the flush and might well be pushed off the hand. I think before betting you have to think long and hard what you're going to do if he respresents the flush.

If youre going to fold, then check and fold, dont waste another 1500. If youre going to play then bet half your chips indicating youre not going away. He has to give up any bluffs/steals at that point as youve indicated that youre pot committed on the turn, but if he just calls again and another card comes that convinces you that you really are beaten you do have an out.

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MarkD, I personally like your c/r on the flop (although it might be a little high), because I think SF will bet here with nothing often enough to make it profitable. However, once he calls you, you have to decide what you will do on the turn depending on what comes out - as Masquerade states above.

If a non-heart comes out, will you bet the turn? Will you push to block villian's possible flush draw? If you bet and he raises you, are you committed to the hand?

If a heart comes, will you bet? Will you push (I hope not because I think you're only getting called when beaten)? Will you call his bet or raise?

I think you bet the turn without thinking about your next move and you wound up convincing yourself out a pot. As Sossman wrote, you "overthought" the hand and I think you folded the winner.

Next time, if you think about your reactions to the villian's reaction to your turn bet before you make that turn bet, I think you will be much more satisfied with your play. (I'm not saying that you'll always win the hand, just that you'll have fewer regrets after the hand is over).

ts-

[SossMan]

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As Sossman wrote, you "overthought" the hand and I think you folded the winner.



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i never said that i think he folded the winner. In fact, if i had to bet my life on wheather or not he was beat (on the turn), I would bet that Fish had a better hand. Doesn't mean I advocate folding, though.

**if you can't see the distinction then this post is too advanced for you and you deserve to lose all your money and for your life to go to crap***

[Beavis68]

Mark, congrats on playing in the Series, must have been pretty exciting, I hope to do it in the next few years - or a WPT tourney.

I am a low limit hack, but I read and play a lot and I am profitable.

I would have check-raised him all-in here. Not the most elegant move, but you are out of position, and there are very few cards you can feel good about on the turn.

Two pair like this is a very vulnerable hand, and must be protected. The 1150 in the pot would be a nice addition to your stack.

[Beavis68]

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check raising to 1000 only gives him 2.5:1 or so. Not enough for just a flush draw and certainly not enough for lesser pairs. My line would be checkraise to 1k and if called, bet out like 1500 or so (into the 2600 pot) on the turn and evaluate the situation if he pushes. If he pushed in that spot, you would be getting about 3:1, so I could probably start considering a fold there.

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825 in the pot, Fisch bet 325, that is 1150+1000=2125 675 to call, that is 3.2:1 plus implied odds on a draw rich board with a weak top two-pair.

The bet he made gave 2.5:1 odds. 2475:1000

[The Student]

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As Sossman wrote, you "overthought" the hand and I think you folded the winner.



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i never said that i think he folded the winner. In fact, if i had to bet my life on wheather or not he was beat (on the turn), I would bet that Fish had a better hand. Doesn't mean I advocate folding, though.

**if you can't see the distinction then this post is too advanced for you and you deserve to lose all your money and for your life to go to crap***

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Easy there, Sossman. Notice that I only quoted the "overthought", then I said that I thought that he folded the winner - not that you (Soss) thought that he folded the winner. However, now that I've re-read the entire thread, I don't know why I thought that you had said that he overthought the hand and folded when he should not have. I have been reading a lot of threads today, and I think I just got confused in which thread I was following. Sorry for misquoting you, but thanks for the kind wishes at the end of your post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

ts-

[Jason Strasser]

MarkD,

I have a few thoughts.

First of all, your laydown, examined by itself, is not that horrible, it's PROBABLY the right play. If you just treated the one decision completely independant of any prior moves in this hand, it isnt terrible. I really dont think scott would put all his chips in with a type of semibluff or air... The price you are getting is so good that he probably considers you pot committed. So that laydown in itself, isnt bad considering all factors.

That being said, you played this hand poorly IMO. Skimming your responses, it seems you cant stop saying that "He's not bluffing here, yadda yadda". Well no crap. As you pointed out you are getting almost 4:1 on your call. Unless he's truly sick, there is very very very very little chance he would pull a bluff or even a semibluff on you... Especially given the fact you are an unknown player. Fischman is not a good player overplaying a worse two pair here or some type of QhJx or semibluff hand without (apparent) folding equity. But lets be real, you could've taken many better routs to this point.

Here are two:

1) Check-call, lead out any turn.

2) Lead out.

They are not in any particular order, although I prefer leading out. Both lines allow you the most flexibility with your stack. Your stack is a position of being in a very awkward position if you check raise. As MLG noted, you should CR less as to have more flexibility in the hand. I think you should take one of my two ideas, and control the pot better and get into more hands vs a good player with a higher percentage of winning. I really dont think check raising here is good.

A CR allows fischman to possibly dump a pair of jacks or worse very easily. You dont want that. You need to maximize your value against hands you beat, and that involves keeping the pot a certain size. Inflating the pot vs a good player will have you shaking everyone's hand with some felt stuck between your finger nails.

I can tell you on party poker verses some online donks god I'd CR here so fast and even likely call off all my chips on the turn without hesitation. This is not party poker. You are playing a good player and need to play better. If you are a lot deeper or a lot shallower, your line is fine. Putting yourself in the spot you had yourself in is just bad.

Now, I expect you to respond and tell me "Well both those lines don't charge him enough for a draw!". This is a common mistake most tourney players have in mind, and if you wander over to the nlpl forum you will see that in MOST cases, charging someone for a flush draw here is one small thing to consider, but one of MANY things to consider. Something more important then charging him for a draw is keeping him in the pot with a worse hand, and also giving you flexibility in the case you are behind.

You can completely write this post off, but the reality is MarkD, you really could've played this hand much, much better.

-Jason

[locutus2002]

Interesting hand.

I think c/r all-in is the best play after the flop because I think hero's situation is bad with any hand that villain can continue with.

It's a little strange because hero is probably favored in the hand, but the situational characteristics are definitely in villain's favor.

These are the characteristics that I think make the situation unfavorable for hero, not in order of importance.

1) Hero suspects villain has something before he bets the first time.

2) Hero's hand is transparently at least two pair w/Js. I think 84 check/pushes as well.

3) Villain can have a very wide holding here.

4) Villain has some unquantifiable large amount of FE. I count only 19 cards out of 47 (non heart, 2,3,5,6,7 and 8,J) that hero would like to see on the turn. I think villain can make a play with many of the remainder.

5) Villain may have 15 outs

6) Hero is OOP and must offer a solid follow-up bet or surrender pot. With the followup bet, villain's pot odds are ~3-4:1, and the implied odds are greater.

7) Villain is probably the stronger player.

8) Hero's hand is unlikely to improve.

I c/r all-in. I'm not too worried about 44 as I think villain would have repopped any normal raise and I wouldn't be able to get away without losing all my chips. He might not slow play the 44 because there are too many scare cards that could kill the action, and he can't make villain for 88 or JJ with the PF action.

As the hand went down, I think he had the flush to come over the top at the turn because your bet should have left you pot committed. I probably check fold the turn when the heart appears.

[SossMan]

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As Sossman wrote, you "overthought" the hand and I think you folded the winner.



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i never said that i think he folded the winner. In fact, if i had to bet my life on wheather or not he was beat (on the turn), I would bet that Fish had a better hand. Doesn't mean I advocate folding, though.

**if you can't see the distinction then this post is too advanced for you and you deserve to lose all your money and for your life to go to crap***

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Easy there, Sossman. Notice that I only quoted the "overthought", then I said that I thought that he folded the winner - not that you (Soss) thought that he folded the winner. However, now that I've re-read the entire thread, I don't know why I thought that you had said that he overthought the hand and folded when he should not have. I have been reading a lot of threads today, and I think I just got confused in which thread I was following. Sorry for misquoting you, but thanks for the kind wishes at the end of your post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

ts-

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just messin around...it was an homage to sklansky from TPFAP where he indicates that if you cannot figure out how to determine the number of hand combinations in a certain situation "you deserve to lose".

[SossMan]

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First of all, your laydown, examined by itself, is not that horrible, it's PROBABLY the right play.

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meaning he *probably* had the worse hand, or it was *probably* a good chipEV fold?
i agree with the former, and staunchly disagree with the latter.

[Jason Strasser]

Fine, call. I dont see Scott doing this with stuff other than a better hand very often, but pot odds are good, etc. Fine.

The point is, the turn is clearly clearly the least important part about this hand. Everyone here wants to argue call/fold, when the real important part of this hand is the flop. The turn becomes one of those assigning equity and going from there situations, and I guess you could argue back and forth on it but if you want to debate more useful things stick to the flop action and the plan the hero should have in this hand.

-Jason