WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Here is a hand that I played against Scott Fishman at the WSOP Event #2 $1500 NL tournament that I would appreciate comments on.

note:I am posting my thoughts on this hand now - in a separate post. I think it would be a good idea if people did not read those until after they have thought about this hand and commented on it. I would wait to post my thoughts but I already typed them and don't want to forget to post them later.

Background:

I just recently moved to this table after my table broke up. The blinds were 100/200 with a 25 ante. On the very first hand that I sat down at the table I was seated two off the button and was dealt A9o. It was folded around to me and I raised it to 700. It’s folded to Fishman who is in the BB and he moves all in for somewhat less than my stack (very close). I have about 6k before this hand and I folded.

After that I didn’t do anything until the next round where I stole the blinds in a similar position with KQo and the same size bet. Other than the hand where Fishman moved in against me he hasn’t been too active. He did win one pot in between my hand and his hand where he didn’t show his hand down. I can’t remember the details of that hand but I believe he made a large bet during it as well and then his opponent folded (I am very very foggy on the hand though and all I really know for sure is that he has chipped up slightly). The hand in question happens in my second small blind.

My stack, before posting the small blind, is 5425 and Fishman has me covered. I didn’t count everyone at my table down by my stack appeared to be slightly lower than the average stack at my table. The large stacks (2 of them) would have been 15k or more.

100/200 Blinds w 25 ante – 10 handed. The blinds are going up to 150/300 w 25 ante in about 13 minutes.

Pre-flop:
Fishman open limps in middle/late position. I am the SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and complete. The BB checks.

Flop (825):
J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, BB checks, Fishman bets 325. I checkraise to 1325 total. BB folds and Fishman calls.

<font color="blue">I checked this flop specifically because I was watching Fishman when the flop came down and although I didn’t pick up on any tell per se I really felt that if checked to he was going to bet this board</font>

Turn (3475)
6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet 1500, Fishman raises all-in and has me covered. I think for a long time and fold.

Comments on all plays of this hand very appreciated.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

This post was written before reading any comments posted. It is my current thoughts on the hand unbiased.

Pre-flop:
I think completing the small blind here is trivial with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 725-100 pot odds.
<font color="blue">At this point of the hand I put Fishman on a hand range something like: 22-77, 56s-JTs (possibly QJs – I’m not sure if he would raise with this), as well as some suited gap type of hands and possibly a big pair like AA-QQ (trapping). Maybe my range is too narrow here?</font>

Flop:
Perfect flop for me – almost. As mentioned in the initial post I really though Fishman was going to bet this flop if I checked to him. It also really felt like the BB had no interest in this hand and he was not trying to hide that. With this in mind, and with the thought that Fishman was an aggressive player I went for a check raise. I also thought that if the hand got checked around and a bad card came on the turn that I would be willing to get away from my hand without investing a lot of my chips.

When Fishman bet 325 I checked raised 1000 more, giving him pot odds of about 2.5-1 (2475-1000) which seemed like a good amount to bet to allow him make a mistake. The other bet that I thought was to check raise it 1400-1500 more (making my raise about the size of the pot).

My standard move on this flop would be to bet out about 400-500 and maybe that’s what I should have done here. I kind of wanted to play a bigger pot though so decided to get Fishman involved.

<font color="blue">The range I put him on is similar to the range posted above. I thought he probably had a flush draw or something like JTs.</font>

Turn:
Well, that card really sucks ass but I have to bet here. Checking is basically giving up on this hand and this pot is too big for me to do that. I really think I have to bet here and I choose 1500 because it is slightly less than half the pot, but is still a sizeable bet considering our stack sizes. It also leaves me 2400 behind which is 12BB’s. I thought this bet gave me maximum leverage on the hand while still allowing myself to fold if I had to.

When Fishman raised me all in I thought long and hard. My initial instinct was to move in. I talked myself out of it because I really thought Fishman’s only hand was a flush. I talked myself out of the possibility that he was bluffing (disregarded Harrington’s Law of Bluffing) because it looks like I have to call here and his raise really appears that he wants me to call it. If he wants me to call his raise then surely I have to fold right?

Well… that’s what I thought up until my flight home. I started to re-read Harrington before starting Volume 2 and got to Example 4: on page 138 where he introduces the concept of Inflection points. When I got to page 142 I felt as if he was talking about my hand exactly and I felt as if I had made a large mistake by folding. By folding I really did not give myself a reasonable chance to continue on in the tournament. 2400 was a really small stack at my table and with the blinds rising I was in trouble. Even though I still think that Fishman had a flush I believe that I should have assigned some probability to a range of hands that I did have beat (like AA with the Ace of hearts – however improbable), as well as a probability that he was bluffing, and taking that into account – even if I thought he was bluffing I should have sad “f*ck it” and gambled in this spot.

I think I was at an inflection point in my tournament and although this was probably a good fold in a cash game I think it was a bad fold in a tournament. I need to chip up sometime and here is a really decent spot.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think you ran into problems on the turn because of the flop raise. A slightly smaller raise leaves you much more wiggle room on the turn while still giving fishman incorrect odds to call for a flush, since you will be betting the turn and he only gets to see one more card. I'd raise to 900 or so there.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Also you have to take into account the possibility that if you are beat you will draw out on him.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also you have to take into account the possibility that if you are beat you will draw out on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is obvious. If I failed to mention it then I meant to but it is obvious. My pot odds are not there and that was considered when I was at the table as I always do that.

edit: It's possible that I forgot to write about this because my post was getting so freaking long. I generally don't like reading long posts by others so try and keep mine short when possible. This was on my mind when I wrote this big ass post.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I like a lead on the flop, but that could be influenced by already knowing how the turn was played.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you ran into problems on the turn because of the flop raise. A slightly smaller raise leaves you much more wiggle room on the turn while still giving fishman incorrect odds to call for a flush, since you will be betting the turn and he only gets to see one more card. I'd raise to 900 or so there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think the flop may have been the source of some of my problems. Would you raise to 900 total or would you raise 900 more? (I'm assuming 900 total).

If it's 900 total then what would you follow up with on the turn? 1000? I would love to hear a few more thoughts about why you chose 900 spcecifically.

Also, given my flop play I would really appreciate any comments with regards to my turn thoughts relating to Harrington and inflection points.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often that you should be instacalling pretty much always.

What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't. I think that percentage is way way too high and I think you are giving him way too high of bluff percentage here since I don't think many players are going to fold my hand after the betting sequence I iniateted.

[ QUOTE ]
I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often should be instacalling pretty much always.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then after the actual values that I bet on th flop and on the turn then it should be clear that I have an easy call of his turn "bluff" and hence he should know this and know that he shouldn't be bluffing in this spot.

Do people often fold my stack size to turn pushes in this type of spot (forget my actual holding) after this betting sequence. I've shown a lot of strength and committed a lot of chips to the pot.

I think his bluffing percentage in this hand is very low.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often that you should be instacalling pretty much always.

What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking something similar to this as well - that he's counting hearts as bluff outs (probably semi-bluff assuming he has a heart). His limp seems odd to me - and knowing that he knows you're capable of laying down hands that you bet/raise with (eg. your first hand against him), I think he's limping to try to hit something or steal the pot from you if he misses.

I call here and expect to see a semi-bluff with one heart.

ts-