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#61
05-27-2005, 07:50 PM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
WOW great post. I think this is one of the best posts I've read here(still new though). I really like how it took everyone into the poker mind and really helps for understanding just what needs to be done during a hand.
Thanks 
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#62
05-27-2005, 10:20 PM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] gaming mouse: but we'll discount the JJ since sometimes he calls down jason_t: right gaming mouse: so gaming mouse: TT - 3 gaming mouse: JJ - 6 gaming mouse: but call it 3 jason_t: sure gaming mouse: QQ - 3 gaming mouse: KK - 6 gaming mouse: AA - 6 gaming mouse: but AA and KK are very unlikely jason_t: agreed gaming mouse: lets discount them to 2 each jason_t: sounds good to me gaming mouse: AK - 16 gaming mouse: 32 total gaming mouse: 19 are good for hero gaming mouse: wow gaming mouse: easy, easy raise gaming mouse: even if discount for BB gaming mouse: who i think is very likely to fold jason_t: wow, awesome gaming mouse: nh [/ QUOTE ] What are the numbers here and how did gaming mouse come up with them? Are they Villain's outs, your outs, or am I way off? Phogster A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] They are the number of combinations of each reasonable holding based on hand reading from the action up to that point. We discount some of them because of the action. For example AA/KK are possible, but they almost surely would have bet the flop, so they are discounted.
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#63
05-27-2005, 11:22 PM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
Hmm, ok, I get the combinations part (to make TT it's 3 choose 2), but if we add up the numbers we get 3+3+3+2+2+16 = 29 not 32.
"19 are good for hero": Out of the holdings mentioned, hero's 99 beats only AK, that's 16 not 19. What 3 am I missing for both parts?
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#64
05-27-2005, 11:50 PM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, ok, I get the combinations part (to make TT it's 3 choose 2), but if we add up the numbers we get 3+3+3+2+2+16 = 29 not 32. "19 are good for hero": Out of the holdings mentioned, hero's 99 beats only AK, that's 16 not 19. What 3 am I missing for both parts? [/ QUOTE ] Addition mistake in the first case, JJ is favorable in the second as he might lay it down. So 29:19 which is even better.
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#66
05-28-2005, 10:39 PM
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i think you played this hand great...except
that river bet stinks - bet for value my ass!
how many of those that posted are calling the river bet with AK? what was that? i didnt hear you. yeah, that's right nobody. hows about posting the 5-8 hands from the same session where you made this same "value bet" with underpair X2 and were called by a better hand
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#67
05-28-2005, 11:34 PM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Just because it's not folding doesn't mean we shouldn't bet. Do we not bet with top pair on a flush draw board because the flush draw is never folding? [/ QUOTE ] That's a completely different situation. And 3-handed yes I believe I would bet top pair in position 100% of the time. But here if you consider the hand ranges you're up against I think a flop bet actually has a negative expectation. [/ QUOTE ] Hold on, I thought not offering infinite odds was always more EV than offering infinite odds? If you're arguing that checking the flop maximizes the expectation for the whole hand, then I see what you mean. If we bet, we would never get the chance to protect our hand on the turn, and we would have lost the whole pot.
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#68
05-28-2005, 11:38 PM
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Re: i think you played this hand great...except
[ QUOTE ]
that river bet stinks - bet for value my ass! how many of those that posted are calling the river bet with AK? what was that? i didnt hear you. yeah, that's right nobody. hows about posting the 5-8 hands from the same session where you made this same "value bet" with underpair X2 and were called by a better hand [/ QUOTE ] As another poster mentioned in the thread, there have been a lot of call downs with AK UI lately in the Party 2/4 game. As I mentioned, JJ might fold to this last barrel. AK might call. It's razor thin, but I think there is a value in betting.
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#69
05-29-2005, 01:07 AM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
[ QUOTE ]
Betting the flop is wrong as it doesn't protect Hero's hand and Hero can easily be semi-bluffed off the best hand. Waiting for the turn is best to induce a bet from MP and then raising to protect. This is no different than betting into the raiser to enlist his help in protecting a hand. If the BB bets the turn Hero folds. If MP 3-bets the turn Hero folds. [/ QUOTE ] I think there is a difference - I can expect a PF raiser to bet. But AK seems a likely hand here - can you expect AK to bet the turn here after checking the flop? I guess the answer would be hero's checking behind on the flop increases that expectation. I don't think that does it very often imo. Would this be a turn bet if checked to button?
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#70
05-29-2005, 01:15 AM
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Re: Play along: interesting 99 hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Betting the flop is wrong as it doesn't protect Hero's hand and Hero can easily be semi-bluffed off the best hand. Waiting for the turn is best to induce a bet from MP and then raising to protect. This is no different than betting into the raiser to enlist his help in protecting a hand. If the BB bets the turn Hero folds. If MP 3-bets the turn Hero folds. [/ QUOTE ] I think there is a difference - I can expect a PF raiser to bet. But AK seems a likely hand here - can you expect AK to bet the turn here after checking the flop? I guess the answer would be hero's checking behind on the flop increases that expectation. I don't think that does it very often imo. Would this be a turn bet if checked to button? [/ QUOTE ] I think that does increase the expectation. BB had two passes to take a shot at this pot, and I 3-bet preflop and didn't take a shot at the pot on the flop in spite of my positional advantage.
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