Where good players have the edge in a Sit and Go.

[AA suited]

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this works great untill the button shows up with KK AA etc

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Which, statistically, is improbable, especially 4 handed. Even so, he still has 5 cards to make a hand.

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anything is possible on party poker.

$20/2 game, 25/50 blinds. 1 person goes all in, and 4 callers. they had 33, AA, AK, KK, QQ. Yeah, the person who had the 33 was the one who went all in (me). I knew i was dead when i saw all those callers, but my jaw dropped when i saw what they had.

other things that happen at party:
my full house Aces gets killed by a straight flush (2 times so far)
Blind having 27s and becomes a flush or better (3 times)
My pocket pair turns into quads on the flop, and no callers (3 times).

Party's new tagline: Where the improbable happens if you just call to the river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Bozeman]

Not to say (at this point) whether this play is right or wrong, but you have to be aware of whether the play is $EV + as well as CEV +.

Suppose each player is equally good. Also, the 600 chip stack is worth somewhat less than 600 because of the upcoming blinds. Let's approximate it as 500. So stacks are 33, 28, 33, 5 (before this hand). Let's say he fold x of the time, and the (1-x) you are 3-1 dog (you are slightly better if he would call with some unpaired hands).

For simplicity, let's assume BB will always fold (whether or not you push). Then after the hand stacks are 1)31, 34, 29, 5 or 2)45,20,29,5 or 3)5,60,29,5 or 4)65,0,29,5.

Your $ EV for these assumptions (as fraction of prize pool):
1).313
2).368
3).125
4).429

So, EV is .313 or .368*.85 + .125*.15*.75+.429*.15*.25= .313+.014+.016= .343

So by these assumptions, the play is definitely good. However, it is sensitive to several assumptions:

If he calls with more hands, your EV goes down rapidly (for same assumptions but call with 30% instead of 15% and now lose only 70%), EV=.322. For the play to become -, he needs to call almost 1/2 the time. Against a good player, that is not so unlikely, since he wouldn't want to put in almost 30% of his stack on a hand he was ready to fold.

If you do this with total trash (say 72o), it will still be +EV by the other assumptions (since the first term .368*.85=folding equity alone), your EV will drop significantly to EV=.336 . (Axo does about the same as 56s against AA,KK,or QQ)

The most questionable assumption is the value of the small stack with blinds upcoming. If this were say 300, then EVf=.320, but EVr=.350. Thus the relative +EV of this play is fairly insensitive to the size of the small stack (except as it relates to chance of being called).

Finally, the EV depends somewhat on how large your stack would be if you lose. However, since this term accounts for only about .015, it is not enough to swing this to a fold even if you would bust out, except that if button covers you it also increases his chance of calling.

Conclusion: good play unless button is usually/often slowplaying a monster here.

Craig

[codewarrior]

I must disagree with this. I will qualify my statement, however. I try to play 1 $109 on Stars, once a week, either on a Friday or Saturday night (read: early morning), and they are insanely loose. Think WPT junkies with money. It is not uncommon to lose two people in the first round.

I play them at the same site at the same general time each week. My IT$ is 90%. Granted, once a week makes for a small sample. I do not play them more often as I do not keep an online bankroll to support this level.

Maybe this is more a comment on game selection than level, FWIW.

[etizzle]

well, one thing... if he calls you, you have a MUCH better than 5% chance to win. If he has AA, and neither are a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then you have a 22% chance to win. This helps a lot toward making this move profitable. And he is NOT gonna call without a high pocket pair.