I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about how often you're going to end up paying off the river with a losing hand even after improving and figure out how that changes your EV. I haven't done it but my guess is that you should fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't done it either, but all right, here goes:

I guess I'll start with some combos (beginning with the range in your initial post).

KJ = 6
K9 = 6
J9s = 2
QT = 16
KQ = 8
JJ = 3
99 = 3

So this looks really bleak, especially since I agree with you that we should discount the KQ.

However, given that BB was paying just one SB preflop in an 8-handed pot, I want to add in these hands:

J9o = 7
J6s = 2
96s = 2

Unfortunately, we should also probably toss in some discounted possibility of AA (3 combos). Then again, I don't think QQ (6 combos), TT (6 combos), and or hands like T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and QJo can be completely ruled out, especially now that the circumstances of the hand have so quickly changed (from what they were on the flop). I think mostly I'll just leave these possibilities out, though, since I do think they're remote.

That said, let's not forget AK (6 combos), and I don't really want to forget about AA either, but probably that's partly because of something Jason wrote earlier in the thread that seemed like a hint.

All right, so we have 3 outs against KJ.

We have 6 outs against K9.

We have 8 outs against J9.

We have 0 outs against QT.

We have 37 outs against KQ but will have to call again on the river unimproved to cash in on most of them (assuming BB will bet again, though sometimes maybe he won't with that hand).

We have 0 outs against JJ.

We have 0 outs against 99.

We have 8 outs against J6.

We have 8 outs against 96.

We have a chop with AK but again will often have to call again unimproved on the river for that to do us any good.

All right, so we're getting 13.5 to 1 on a turn call.

KJ/K9/J9/QT/JJ/99/J6s/96s gives us 47 total combos. Let's throw in another discounted combo for AA and 2 discounted combos for KQ and 3 discounted combos for AK, and we have 53 combos.

Total outs for the non KQ/AA/AK combos = (3)(6) + (6)(6) + (8)(9) + (0)(16) + (0)(3) + (0)(3) + (2)(8) + (2)(8).

That's 158 outs. When we divide those by 47, we get 3.36 outs on average. So versus these unweighted hands, we can call profitably on the turn, getting 13.5 to 1. But it's close, and we're actually drawing dead almost half the time (22 combos) against this range, so the approximate 1 in 3.5 times we improve, we're frequently going to pay off another bet on the river. When we're not drawing dead, we'll still be paying off sometimes (instead of dragging the pot), though this is minimized somewhat by the fact that it's not always that easy for us to catch the wrong card when we have outs. (For instance, versus J9, only 4 of our 14 "outs" are the wrong ones.) Annoyingly, though, we can improve most easily against QT.

So based on those 47 combos, it does look like a turn fold, especially since the turn call by itself looks very thin and it appears the river will cost us a little more money, on average. However, there is some chance BB will check behind on the river with KQ/AK, and then also we'll sometimes catch one of the cards that improves us when up against those hands and call again on the river correctly. These things should provide a little compensation.

All right, I didn't weight things as much as maybe I should have, and I probably made a mistake somewhere in the math anyway.

But I tried. And reached no firm conclusion in the process. Ugh.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Increasing the size of the pot minimizes the severity of the common mistakes that typical SS players make postflop.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but you are discounting the massive mistake they make by calling 2 more pf with Axo and KTo.

Also, when they cold-call and make tiny mistakes post-flop, the times you win this pot it will be ginormous, and they will chase all day because they [censored]-tarded themselves pf into getting odds the rest of the way.

[Nick C]

I just realized that, if we're not calling again unimproved on the river, versus KQ we have 13 outs, and versus AK we effectively have 6 (12 cards are available that will make us call the river, but we only chop against that hand).

I mention this because it seemed to me like sort of an interesting way of looking at it.

Plus, then, there are the times BB won't bet those hands again, with the KQ being the one he'd be less likely to bet again. I don't know how often this will be the case, but it does add some "outs."

[I am fish]

[ QUOTE ]
I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold'em rage hits China.

[Evan]

My gut reaction is that calling the turna nd folding the river is really bad. The type of player to play KQ like this is almost always going to value bet the river imo.