Flop decision

[rmarotti]

A bet is protecting exactly nothing.

[chief444]

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Doesn't your equity need to rise above the average pot equity for the bet to become valuable?

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Only if you're considering the flop by itself. But the question is what line throughout the entire hand gives you the highest expectation. And sometimes if you look at one street in a vacuum, so to speak, a seemingly bad value bet/raise can be very valuable overall.

In other words, if there were absolutely no pot in the middle when the flop action was to you then the answer to your question would be yes. But the bigger the pot gets the more beneficial the play that increases your chances of winning becomes.

[chief444]

And then I'll let this one die.

For a bet to increase your equity a small percentage it doesn't have to be by getting a better T or J to fold. I wouldn't really expect that to happen, at least absent a check/raise. It could be by getting Ax or Kx clubs to fold. It could be by getting a lone Q,K or occasionally even A to fold when it isn't shared by another opponent. It could be (although unlikely) by getting something like bottom pair no kicker to fold. It could even be by getting any worse T or J that otherwise may have caught a runner-runner straight or two pair to fold. We're only talking about 5% or less which is 1 in 20 times. And obviously there are more ways to win than showing down the best hand as well, although I wouldn't expect that to happen often either.

OK, I'm done. Thanks for all the comments. This is just one I wanted to discuss a little further. I need to go play now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[QTip]

OK. Had a night to ponder. I'm betting.

Thanks for the post.