I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[colgin]

Bet and call a raise. I think going for a check-raise is too risky as a hand that you beat like J9 just got counterfeited and knows it (and thus probably checks the river) and it will cost you three-bets instead of two if your opponent filled up and you are beat.

The action up until the river seems very standard. Well played.

[colgin]

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For the bet/callers, what are you guys putting the BB on when he raises the turn that the river K changes?

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Counterfeited two pair hands like J9, J6s or 96s are all possible holdings IMO.

[Evan]

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Bet and call a raise

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a hand that you beat like J9 just got counterfeited and knows it

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This seems like an extremely discontinuous line of thinking to me. I hate the idea of putting in 2 bets on this river.

[Entity]

River is a check-call. I'm interested in the turn play but I think that I call as a default when I don't have a clue how many outs I have (or if I could possibly be ahead, which is doubtful).

[Nick C]

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Flop coldcall/turn raise = scurrrrrrry

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I agree.

However, the pot is heads-up all of a sudden (which BB may not have anticipated when making the coldcall). I think this could possibly open up his playbook a bit and also reduce his raising standards. The PFR has exited the hand by this point, for instance.

I do think BB usually has a monster here, though.

[hicherbie]

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Even HPFAP advocates sometimes just calling in the blinds with AKo (cf. p. 40--47.)

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the usefulness of pot size control is diminished when your opps misplay their hands anyway. offsuit broadways do suck in multiway pots, but the high card value of your hand easily outweighs any disablity from offsuitedness. see SSHE, Miller et tal.

but anyways, this matters little. hope you didnt fold the river.

[dealer_toe]

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Another thing to consider: Will some of those limpers fold when it's two bets back to them?

If you can get 1 or 2 folds, it might make up for the other factors you listed, no?

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I was thinking the same thing. Given the table numbers I don't think the 3 bet clears much of the field. Of course I have seen table number like this w/ one or two really soft spots. So for us to be sure we'd need specifics. Something to consider about 3 betting is, are the early position players loose or late position? If the early are loose, they'll call giving the LP players good odds to tag along.

That being said, PF isn't all that important and I do the same thing as you.

The river decision is pretty sick. Whats worse, a river check through, or paying 2 bets for a showdown?

I think bet/calling gives villain a chance to make a mistake by calling the river. If we check to him we give him a chance to play correctly by checking through (this is of course if our hand is good).

This runs the risk of paying 2 bets on the river which I don't think is a huge mistake in a pot this big.

Edit: also the chance that you pay 2 bets and your hand is good w/ your A kicker makes risking 2 bets on the river better.

[Derek in NYC]

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Preflop: I am SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Five limpers to the Button, <font color="#cc3333">Button raises</font>, I call intending to check/raise most flops, BB calls.

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Your title says it all. Why isn't this a reraise. We know that anybody who limped for 1 is going to coldcall 2 more at these stakes, so with 5 limpers, I dont see why you dont want to push your edge here as much as possible.

[private joker]

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Some things regarding preflop:

Big unsuited cards don't play well in large multiway pots. (cf. HPFAP.)

My equity will change dramatically depending on the flop. I passed up an equity edge preflop to try to exploit one postflop to maximize my chances of winning this already large pot. (cf. the TT example in SSH.)

I have no idea what AKo's equity edge against seven random hands is, but let's say it's something like 10%. Then in this particular case if I reraise I'd be risking 3 bets to win 21% of 7 bets (preflop folds after calls are rare at 2/4) plus 21% of what's already in the pot (assuming everyone calls), namely 14 bets. So, as far as the preflop betting is concerned, a 3-bet nets me 1.41 bets. Now if I just call to attempt to shrink the field postflop, I will have a bigger equity edge. For example, suppose I manage to shrink the field to a four-handed pot and I have a 20% equity edge. In this case I'm winning 40% of the preflop bets for a net of 3.6 bets. These numbers are merely estimates in an attempt to explain my ideas here. One thing to note is that my preflop equity edge is likely small since I'm not against random hands and my postflop equity edge even if I do manage to shrink the field won't be incredibly large unless I hit the flop because hands that call flop bets or flop check/raises likely connected with the flop.

Increasing the size of the pot minimizes the severity of the common mistakes that typical SS players make postflop.

Even HPFAP advocates sometimes just calling in the blinds with AKo (cf. p. 40--47.)

Lastly, stop trying to auto-pilot preflop. There's thinking to be done. I made a decision in an attempt to maximize my chance of winning this large pot. Does that make up for the lost bets from my preflop equity edge? I don't know. But I'm thinking about and not immediately dismissing the idea and I think that's important. I've folded AKo preflop before. I've 3-bet it from the SB before. It's situation dependent and here I chose to wait for a good flop to spring to life (keep in mind that 32% of the time I flop at least a pair); I want to win a large pot as soon as possible rather than just pumping and preying. (cf. Chapter 9 of TOP.)

Again, I don't know what nets me more in the long run but I do think it's not immediately obvious that 3-betting is best.

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This is all well and good, but you want to maximize your chance of winning big pots by narrowing the field and putting raises in. 3-betting preflop will often get a couple of the limpers to fold, and suddenly the pot is more manageable and you have a better chance of winning.

I'd venture to say it's highly probable a PF 3-bet folds the BB's hand, a hand that likely defeated you.

[baronzeus]

I'm sticking with betfold for the time being.

There's no way he raises without a boat when you bet into him. It's obvious you have the king. I don't even think he raises with a straight in this situation, given how passive he seems.

Bet, and fold to a raise, or check and call, but only worse hands will check behind, and only better hands will bet IMO.

This hand is played exactly like QT or 99 or JJ or J9 imo. 66 is out of the question.

I think you're beat a large percentage of the time here.