Flop decision

[QTip]

Betting (I mention nothing of value here because I think it’s about neutral at best):

Pros:

1. Possibly clean up outs
2. Possibly get free river card
3. Possibly get c/red by marginal from TAG; and thereby possibly get HU increasing your equity.

Cons:

1. Not taking advantage of opponents mistake giving you a free card - also allowing them to turn their mistake into a great play by c/ring.
2. Tie others to the pot by inflating it
3. If get c/red, it’s more expensive and this may not knock out opponents anyway – inflating the pot, costing you more money, and no free river card.

Did I miss something? I don't think the decision is easy.

[chief444]

You're pros and cons are more or less specific situations that may or may not occur. So, given that we agree that in terms of value the flop bet is neutral or slightly less, the real question is what do you feel the average result is of these specific possibilities? And does that average increase your chances of winning? Because if so even by a few percent then it seems to lean this towards a bet. And basically the more "value" you lose on the flop bet the more your equity increases, again, on "average".

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
And basically the more "value" you lose on the flop bet the more your equity increases, again, on "average".

[/ QUOTE ]

That just flew over my head...the more value I lose, the more my equity increases....I'm not getting it.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
And basically the more "value" you lose on the flop bet the more your equity increases, again, on "average".

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't your equity need to rise above the average pot equity for the bet to become valuable?

[Entity]

Off the top of my head, I'd bet. I don't think a c/r hurts us terribly here (in fact, it may help us more than it hurts us) and I'd like to increase my chances of seeing the river for 1SB.

Rob

[chief444]

And then I'll let this one die.

For a bet to increase your equity a small percentage it doesn't have to be by getting a better T or J to fold. I wouldn't really expect that to happen, at least absent a check/raise. It could be by getting Ax or Kx clubs to fold. It could be by getting a lone Q,K or occasionally even A to fold when it isn't shared by another opponent. It could be (although unlikely) by getting something like bottom pair no kicker to fold. It could even be by getting any worse T or J that otherwise may have caught a runner-runner straight or two pair to fold. We're only talking about 5% or less which is 1 in 20 times. And obviously there are more ways to win than showing down the best hand as well, although I wouldn't expect that to happen often either.

OK, I'm done. Thanks for all the comments. This is just one I wanted to discuss a little further. I need to go play now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]