interesting concept

[smartalecc5]

that stuff is WAY over my head.

[Jazza]

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I find those to be silly assumptions. I was born when I was born. That's a 100% probability regardless of what the Future brings

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i agree, and i don't see how this is relevent

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The model you describe is just one of a gazillion possible models that could be dreamed up from an imagined godlike perspective to explain how that fact came to be.

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this is where i don't agree, i reckon there are just a few models tops, and this model is most likely to be true IMO

[Jazza]

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that stuff is WAY over my head.

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i doubt that, i'm just really really crap at trying to communicate ideas

[Master Shake]

so are there less souls than there will be human births? or maybe i am "special" and my soul wasnt randomly distributed. but what about everyone else? unless theirs was randomly distributed, they are also special. if not, from their perspective it would appear that the doomsday theory holds water. is this evidence of god? does this prove the existance of god, reincarnation, doomsday, or none of the above? am interested to hear what all the other logical thinkers have to say.

[PairTheBoard]

Quoted by Jazza:
PairTheBoard: "The model you describe is just one of a gazillion possible models that could be dreamed up from an imagined godlike perspective to explain how that fact came to be. "



Jazza: "this is where i don't agree, i reckon there are just a few models tops, and this model is most likely to be true IMO "

ok, let's work with your model for a minute. Suppose there are two kinds of Universes God creates. Universe A is destined to have 100 billion people born before human extinction. Universe B is destined to have 100 Trillion. I am to be born into either Universe with birth position randomly chosen from the number of people destined to be born in that Universe. I look at where I am and see I am #60 billion. If I am in Universe A the chances of me being #60 billion are 1 in 100 billion. If I am in Universe B the chances of me being #60 billion are 1 in 100 Trillion.

NOW, in order to apply Bayes Theorum we Must Have apriori probabilities for how God chooses to create Universe A or B. Why arbitrarily say the apriori probabilties are 50-50? Maybe the apriori probabilities are that Universe A gets created with probability 1 in a Trillion to the Trillion to the Trillionth power and Universe B with probabilty 1-P(A). Where does that leave your Bayes calculation then? And on what basis do you choose your apriori probabilities? And why assume just two possible universes. Maybe there are infinitely many with people destined to be born running to infinity. Maybe God first cuts off the Universes to a finite number and chooses an apriori distribution where one order of magnitude larger implies a Trillion to the Trillionth to the Trillionth power more probable.

Or maybe the Universe has no end and the human species goes on forever with probabilty 1.

Or maybe God has simply decided to make me #60 billion regardless of which Universe he decides to make. Maybe he decides my number first and then he decides on how long the human species will survive. Or maybe he decides to make me #60 billion and it turns out that what I say in this post will determine how long the human species will survive.

God, I hope I said the right thing.

PairTheBoard