50-100 Vs Solid Pro

[esspo]

[ QUOTE ]
This flop-turn variation is perfectly acceptable from time to time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but it must be a variation and be interpreted as a variation. The value of the semi-bluff is the additional folding equity + the times you suck out. If you overuse the semibluff, the folding equity drops to near zero making it a -EV play.

[Nate tha' Great]

This is the best post in the thread, IMHO, because it's the only one that's really breaking down his likely holdings.

I'd like a checkraise better against an opponent who was described as overaggressive, whereas this guy seems to be playing somewhat too tight.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess i don't get it. Someone help me out.

Hands he doesn't have, AA KK QQ 99.

Hands he may or may not have, AK KQ AQ.

Hands that would play like this, JJ TT AT AJ.

Against,

AQ it's a sweet c/r if he pays off.

Against AK KQ - if he does have these hands the reason he has those is because he didn't want to lose the player on the turn and is probably now going to raise the river, so the c/r is bad.

Against, JJ TT he'll value bet (maybe?) but prob wont pay off but he will def call if you just bet.

AT AJ seems like they are folding if you bet and checking the river if you check, but hell, you may just induce a bluff.

So it seems like a bad idea, but if clark and eldiablo both say different i guess my analysis is wrong somewhere, help?

[/ QUOTE ]

[HiatusOver]

Sup Lars your post got me thinking, so I will try to respond.

>>>Two things:>>>

>>>1) The preflop call is obvious. You are getting 4.5-to-1 on the call, and a solid pro should also be loosening up on his opening raising standards (pairs at least from 66 and up is viable raising hands here).<<<

OK it seems like everyone agrees here pretty much. I just thought it was gonna be a lot closer with a hand with pretty poor implied odds.

>>>2) How would you play QJo in the same spot with the same board? Asking even more specific, are there any hands of a more immediate made hand value you could checkraise on this flop that couldn't beat that K on the turn?<<<<<<

This is a tough and very good question. I'm sure like most of us here, I dont play the same hand the same way all the time. I have started to lead flops lately so this might have been a spot I would experiment with that. I check-raise more flops than most heads up because I also like to run semi-bluff plays like this one. If I called the pre-flop raise here with TT I think I am definitely checkraising and then folding to a turn raise or something and probably checking the river with this board (??)...or something along those lines. With QJ specifically I might check-call the flop and lead the turn based on a few different things, I also have certainly check-raised the flop with QJ in spots like these and almost always if the PF raise came from Mid-late position. With AQ I think there is more than a 50 percent chance I am check-raising this flop. So basically yea I am gonna check-raise this flop sometimes with hands that dont beat the K. By doing this it puts me in tricky spots where mistakes can be made, but hey thats why they call it poker. (right?)

[HiatusOver]

Barron you said "I'm not certain, but I think I'd like the check-raise the turn vs. trying for it on the river, which might be suspect, as Barry suggested, and might draw 0BB."

We are worried about being suspect but we want to check-raise the flop and check the turn? That is much much more suspect then check-raising the flop, betting the turn and checking the river.

It is very rare for an opponent to check-raise the flop and then just check fold the turn. So he has to "suspect" that I am either calling or raising again. I think he definitely checks AQ for example on the turn if I check it to him.

[HiatusOver]

Renaud,

First of all, thanks for the response. I am honored to have a rare Renaud response in my thread. You say my play is too expensive. I always thought that these plays were pretty cheap and you had both Hand equity and Fold equity working for you to overcome the small extra cost.

If I am willing to check-fold the river, what makes my semi-bluff so expensive? It will probably cost me .75 more Small bets (I came up with this pretty fast, maybe its off) over the long run to run this semi-bluff instead of check-calling it down. Also, saying that you need to follow through on the river doesnt help your argument that a semi-bluff is too expensive because all you are saying that independent of everything else, when you get to the river a bet is in order. You might be right here, I would love to hear others...but it doesnt help you argument that check-raising the flop and betting the turn is too expensive.

Don't you think I have enough draw equity and fold equity to atleast make this close? Isn't AJ and other hands gonna lay down sometimes when the turn is a 7? Also I have a clean 8 outs twice to the nuts and maybe a J or 10 is good sometimes...that lessens the cost.

This guy isnt laying down the flop no I agree...but he cant just keep calling every good players flop check-raise turn lead with A high all day and expect to beat the game.

[HiatusOver]

Anyone who just read my response to Renaud...I just ediited some of the river discussion when I thought about it more. Basically I said that if Renaud thinks we need to bet the river when we get there (I.E. betting the river when 2 blanks come and we have been called so far is a +EV play) Then it can't help the argument that a semi-bluff is too expensive.

[Steve Giufre]

Supose you did bet the flop and turn, and missed your hand on the river. I really think checking is right, and I sorta want to discuss it because I think its interesting. With that board, I think once he calls the turn with 1010 or JJ, he is gonna call the river, since there isnt enough money in the pot to just call with his likely 6 outer. He wont get two bets on the river because there will be 4 to a straight out there when he improves and Hiatus wont pay off with his made hands. So if he calls with those hands on the turn its because he is gonna show it down. If he were capable of raising A10 AJ UTG then it would make a lot more sense, beacause those are reasonable hands he could have gotten to the river with, but folded for one more bet. I know Hiatus didnt mention the player in question, but he is super tight, and he defintely doesnt have A10 here. I really doubt he has AJ either. I just wouldnt see the point of firing again on the river on a miss.

I guess what I'm asking is, since we know a pretty good amount about his preflop rasing standards and his range of hands, what will he call the turn with but fold on the river for one more bet?

[HiatusOver]

OK Gambler I am gonna go through the breakdown with you...good post.

KK, QQ, 99 he doesnt have, so we can ignore those hands...

AA : he might have still, though an unlikely line that King is a scary card on the turn and he no longer beats much. What am I gonna pay off on the river if he raises? Answer : not much that doesnt beat AA.
Will he bet the river and call a raise? definitely bet and maybe call a raise. Will he pay off a river 3-bet NO CHANCE

AK : See AA, by the way if you disagree with the AA possibly not raising the turn, how is that any different than AK which you said might not.

KQ : he probably raises the turn here...if he is waiting for the river then I missed out on some bets definitely.

AQ : I am an expert and ride off into the sunset...although he could definitely fold when I check-raise...

JJ-TT : Well first of all its less likely because I have a J and a T, I dont even know if he gets to the river and I dont know if he pays off the river if I bet...my guess is he doesnt pay off the river if he gets there. He is not gonna value bet.

AT-AJ : He certainly isnt calling and he might bluff, probably not.

KJs : You forgot to mention this on, and some other hands he could have...Anyways with KJs I think he could very well play the hand this way and is definitely betting the river.


From all this analyis I still don't know, but I think you have to see how its not a definite bet. A lot depends on if he pays off the river with certain hands. And what he does with AK, AA

[YoureToast]

I checkraise this flop also. My question to you is: why? I'm curious to see what you (or others) have to say about the value of this flop checkraise.

As for the rest of the hand, I like the preflop call; as stated, I like the flop CR; I like the turn bet (hmmm, says the pro, thats interesting, he must have a Q); and I like the river CR because of the strength of the previous action. However, I still think the river CR is wrong (even though I like it).

[J_V]

You picked the perfect player to make this play against and I'm almost sure it's +EV. You are likely gonna get a check-raise in on AQ or AK.

Obviously, the meta-considerations are fantastic as well.
This play doesn't seem that debatable to me either. I haven't read the other posts though.