Brilliance or idiocy. What's your pick? - Page 4

unfrgvn · #31 09-12-2005, 03:45 PM

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Good catch. You're right. I shouldn't have put that an A or K was possibly an out on the turn.

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Uh, if he has A/J and a King hits on the turn, then you take the lead. If an Ace hits then you take the lead as well (Aces n' Queens with King kicker vs. Aces n' Queens with Jack kicker)

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Missed that the A would counterfeit his hand. Sorry.

adanthar · #32 09-12-2005, 03:55 PM

Okay, it's conceivable to just call PF since you aren't that far ahead of his range (although I'd still push.) So, sure, you got to see a flop - which missed you in every way possible, putting him ahead almost 100% of the time unless he also has AK or has way looser raising standards than you thought.

At which point is it a good idea to call here? If you were gonna take away the pot, take it away PF, because on this board you are very often going broke.

Also, if I had AJ there you'd have either won 35K on the flop or lost about 100K total. He wasn't *that* good.

rwanger · #33 09-12-2005, 03:57 PM

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I don't like lying so I replied no. Then I felt bad so I followed up a few seconds later with "I had the hearts".

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So, you don't like lying, but apparently "not wanting to make someone feel bad" outweighed "not lying"?

Are you sure you have the right personality for poker...? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Toro · #34 09-12-2005, 03:58 PM

Mr. Moo, if he pushed all-in on the River what were you going to do?

locutus2002 · #35 09-12-2005, 04:29 PM

I don't like the way you played the hand at all.

PF.

Raise to isolate and for information. You are lucky another player didn't call, and then you're AK would play much worse after you whiffed the flop.

ATF

This is a horrible flop for you. There are almost no hands that villain could have that you are beating. When villain leads the flop you can't raise him out of the pot. You probably have 9 outs (2XA,3XK,4XT). The hearts are not that scary because it is unlikely that hero would not raise with AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BTF, about as unlikely as hero having AJ beat IMO. Villain misplays the flop bet and gives hero 6:1 implied odds when AK is hero's most likely holding (needing only 4:1 to call) A pot sized bet would have been much better.

The turn:

Villain could not have picked a better card for the turn. He misplayed and should have moved in; instead he bets 1/4 of the pot on a highly coordinated board and gives hero 7:1 implied odds to call the turn.

The river:

Villain makes another mistake and doesn't realize that he is committed. If he misplayed it this way all along he should bet T24,000 on the river too. Villain checks.
Hero makes an incorrect bluff at the pot, since villain should call with any holding here given the pot odds and his tournament situation (continuing with 6.75XBB). Villain incorrectly folds.

All in all a poorly played hand by both parties. Hero's river bet can only be construed as a good play in the sense that he suspected that villain would make the wrong play and fold; even then its dubious at best.

MrMoo · #36 09-12-2005, 04:29 PM

Fold and be pissed I called his smallish turn bet.

Toro · #37 09-12-2005, 04:45 PM

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Fold and be pissed I called his smallish turn bet.

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Of course you would have to fold. By playing so passively with the best hand you endangered yourself into being outplayed. He almost outplayed you, but just didn't have the nerve to make a big enough turn bet.

MrMoo · #38 09-12-2005, 04:45 PM

Most people on these boards would push. I acknowledge that and I'm not saying any of them are wrong in any way. However, I've been experimenting with trying to extract the most chips as possible per a given hand I play. I realize that a lot of times I allow people to draw towards hands and that in doing so I will concievably be going broke or losing chips in the process. I'm willing to accept that. I want to develop plays that few try and truly understand whether they are profitable or not and why.

curtains · #39 09-12-2005, 04:48 PM

I would just reraise preflop. Even if you lose, you still have 50k+ chips. If UTG had 170k, I like flat calling a bit more than in this situation, because in that scenario you basically have to risk all your chips to win 30k against a solid UTG raiser, as opposed to all of your chips save 50k.

After the flop I believe I'd just fold.

adanthar · #40 09-12-2005, 04:53 PM

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Most people on these boards would push. I acknowledge that and I'm not saying any of them are wrong in any way. However, I've been experimenting with trying to extract the most chips as possible per a given hand I play.

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You can do what you are trying to do with math without ever playing a hand. It's even relatively easy (with AKs, counting your flush draw, you'll hit about 45% of flops; if it was AKo, it'd be around 1/3.)

Now look at his UTG range; if you are ahead of it, a push is +EV. A call vs. that same range (that you are ahead of) is clearly -EV on its own, because you will miss >50% of flops. Therefore, your call must make up chips postflop to be profitable, and judging by this one hand (where you called off 1/3 of your stack with the obviously worse hand, then bluffed 1/4 of the pot) that isn't going to happen enough.