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#31
08-23-2005, 05:41 PM
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Re: I\'ve got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
Im getting different results 24.6K in side pot .425 equity ----- 10,455 49,400 in main pot X equity ------- 13,045 (equity from main pot needed) 13045/49,400 = 26.4 30% > 26.4% I am interested in what range of hands you would push from the Button, and why? I still think 22 is a good push until someone proves me wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Why would I voluntarily put over half my chips in when I am at best 50% to win. Thats the old adage aint it? I wouldnt push 22 as button there ever! But I suck. Thats my reasoning though. 
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#32
08-23-2005, 06:31 PM
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Re: I\'ve got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?
You're right, I was lazy with my numbers using rough counts for the chip stacks.
As for 22.... it is 50/50 vs a random hand. Reduce that to top 70% of hands you're down 48/52. So, ok, 48% of the dead money (7800) is yours. Now the risks... As we've seen, the BB can actually call with some 20% of his hands - SB, maybe 10%. I'm not going to bother with the math, but I think you are right - this is probably +EV. However, I think patience will bring a better opportunity. I think this is a case where survivalism is more important. I know this is a very weak arguement and I should use math to prove the point, but I'm lazy. CSC
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#33
08-23-2005, 07:04 PM
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Re: A8s with 11BB in the BB, 4BB stack is AI. 7BB stack is AI. Actio
Pot odds aren't all that sweet as I think you're a pretty big dog after the second AI. I muck very quickly and efficiently. With 11BB (not much, but not that bad, either) you can find much better spots later on than calling a raise and a re-raise with A-high. Sooted.
Kirk
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#34
08-23-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: I\'ve got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
You're right, I was lazy with my numbers using rough counts for the chip stacks. As for 22.... it is 50/50 vs a random hand. Reduce that to top 70% of hands you're down 48/52. So, ok, 48% of the dead money (7800) is yours. Now the risks... As we've seen, the BB can actually call with some 20% of his hands - SB, maybe 10%. I'm not going to bother with the math, but I think you are right - this is probably +EV. However, I think patience will bring a better opportunity. I think this is a case where survivalism is more important. I know this is a very weak arguement and I should use math to prove the point, but I'm lazy. CSC [/ QUOTE ] This may be just style prefernce, or something more. I am really doing alot of thinking about spots like this. 1.) At this point (7xBB) I am through waiting for better opportunities (I never really wait anyway). But the chips you lose waiting are doubled, given that you will need to double soon to have a shot. 2.) Given 2 equal cEV spots, I think there is a lot to be said for picking the alternative with the highest variance when you reach a certain level of your stack. i.e. I would rather take a coin flip with some dead money over a Blind steal that will be successful 85% of the time. Again, it comes down to a style difference, and what you want your finish distribution to look like. Personally, mine has always been all or nothing, but I am always open to adjustments
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#35
08-23-2005, 11:14 PM
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Re: I\'ve got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?
That's a good point. I guess I'm always trying to decrease variance at the cost of EV - comes from being a limit player. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Anyway, this wasn't my hand (none of the three). KQo is your initial push, 77 comes over the top, and A8s calls in the BB. I thought the last two decisions were good for debate. Result was 77 spikes a 7 to take it all.
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