Can I fold here ?

[MadMat]

Thanks for the input guys, much appreciated, was worried I'd turned into a calling station when I saw that hand in a review of a losing session!

Mat

[johnc]

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Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

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I *think* we can establish with 95% certainty that we're behind on this turn, and as such we'll probably get three-bet if we raise. We are last to act on the turn and we're drawing to a decent number of outs against most three betting hands except AK. Please correct me as to why calling is still wrong here.

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I fully agree this is a raise/fold situation. Calling accomplishes nothing. If we're really that sure we're behind (I've never been "95%" sure, ever) then easy fold why stick around a pay him off. Raising ,however IMO is the best option b/c it forces the decision into the other guy's lap. He'll be the thinking about whether he's got you beat - if he decides that yes he's got the winning hand then a 3-bet will let you know that at which point you can muck. You put in 2 bbs for the raise (just like calling the turn and river bets) but you'll have a much more accurate assessment of where you stand plus the chance of him folding (tiny, I know) definately pushes this on into a turn raise.

[Aaron W.]

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Ok thinking out loud...

The fact that villain hasn't played a hand in an entire orbit makes you think tightish... on the turn you're behind all of a TAG's three-betting hands except for 99 and maybe KQ.

You have six outs against AA
You have two + .5 x 8 = 6 outs against KK
You have 8 outs against QQ, JJ, TT
You have 1.5 against AK

Now I don't know how to reconcile all the alternatives and outs, but is calling still wrong KNOWING you're behind? I think we can give ourselves 5-6 outs given the options above no? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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See SSH 109.

[GrunchCan]

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See SSH 109.

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What's on that page?

[grjr]

I would have raised the flop here to try to gain some control of the hand. If he calls and checks the turn I can take a free card. If he 3 bets and a bad card hits the turn maybe it's a little easier to get out.

[POKhER]

finding hidden outs.

[Aaron W.]

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See SSH 109.

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What's on that page?

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Calculating a weighted average of outs against villain's potential hands.