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#31
05-25-2005, 10:48 AM
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Re: Some math for the river call.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] the problem with that analysis, although correct, is that it kind of needs to be bayesian, in the sense that you need to know the probability of a diamon GIVEN that everyone called the turn and someone new woke up on the river. I think it's very very high. there's also the obscure but significant chance of a boat. [/ QUOTE ] Good point, but his bet could mean SO many things. I still don't think it pushes the likelyhood up 93% or whatever, do you? (In this case he had 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) If he were a very tight player, then it might. He is loose and seeing a lot of rivers. Nak [/ QUOTE ] if it were HU on the turn then you could call down (EDIT: especially against this opponent, I didnt know that about him before), but even if you beat this guy just barely enough to make this +EV you have to beat the other guys too. 
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#32
05-25-2005, 10:55 AM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] holy crap. I am astonished anyone would fold this pf. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] You'd be willing to pay 4 SB OOP?
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#33
05-25-2005, 10:56 AM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
What about reverse implied odds...even if you have the best hand on the flop, you will be drawn out easily. Also, I wouldn't have cold called this bet with pocket fours, but that's just me.
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#34
05-25-2005, 11:02 AM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
Wouldn't the gut shot straight outs be partial outs due to the 3 flush on the board (on the turn). Then, you would only have 3 1/2 outs total. Therefore, 10:1 is not enough to make this call..just a thought.
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#35
05-25-2005, 11:50 AM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
your 4's will also be outs with implied odds, and you will sometimes river a diamond and get a free showdown with the best hand
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#36
05-25-2005, 12:14 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
Nice hand.
-DeathDonkey
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#37
05-25-2005, 12:58 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pf u have frickin' 44 [/ QUOTE ] this is a pretty easy call preflop with 3 people in and the blinds (UTG has to call one more but will undoubtedly do that) [/ QUOTE ] there is one caller, one raiser, a coldcaller and then our 'hero'. i dont like this because you dont know what is going to happen after. everyone could call. no one could call. someone could 3bet. in late position with 3 or 4 in i'll call. we're middle with a raiser and one caller. in my opinion, abort! 77 or 88 ill call. 99 and up ill 3bet. I dunno about 44...maybe he knew something about the table/players that i didnt but i'm out of this. [/ QUOTE ] two words -> implied odds you flop a set here and then you rake in BB's palm over fist
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#38
05-25-2005, 01:06 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pf u have frickin' 44 [/ QUOTE ] this is a pretty easy call preflop with 3 people in and the blinds (UTG has to call one more but will undoubtedly do that) [/ QUOTE ] there is one caller, one raiser, a coldcaller and then our 'hero'. i dont like this because you dont know what is going to happen after. everyone could call. no one could call. someone could 3bet. in late position with 3 or 4 in i'll call. we're middle with a raiser and one caller. in my opinion, abort! 77 or 88 ill call. 99 and up ill 3bet. I dunno about 44...maybe he knew something about the table/players that i didnt but i'm out of this. [/ QUOTE ] two words -> implied odds you flop a set here and then you rake in BB's palm over fist [/ QUOTE ] w/ large pot no one is going anywhere and will draw to their straight/flush/larger set enough times to beat you. as it is no 4, and now we are in a tough spot but need to keep going due to the pot size.
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#39
05-25-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
holy crap. I am astonished anyone would fold this pf. you'd need to knock me unconscious to get those 4s out of my hand before I see a flop here [/ QUOTE ] I totally agree. U need to play your pockets B/C they are awesome. Even in a raised pot I'll call with 22. I really think those of you who don't are missing some opportunitys here.
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#40
05-25-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
I agree..I think this was a loose cold call. The only chance you have of winning for the mots is flopping a set. Cold calling this pre-flop raise does not give you anywhere near 7.5:1 when you are calling 2 bets. In HEFAP, this is a group 8 hand...and I think cold calling with a weak hand like this is bad.
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