Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You've Gotta Swallow

[Trainwreck]

All logos are banned on the WPT, several episodes appear with BLACK taped logos.

The show is far too popular, advertising costs $, I am wondering how much is paid for the ever changing OFFICIAL BEER.

One show in Aruba had an ad on the TABLE covered, although I think they slipped up at least once.

.net poker site with disclaimers: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE are so funny, it's as bad as NOT allowing alcohol to be actually consumed in a commercial, god forbid the kiddies figure out what you do with BEER!

Come play free at .net and you can play with 2 poker champions! NOT!

>TW<

[TheKnife]

I love when DN made fun of Giang and was rubbing his chest

[bookie socks]

Well she did hold that microphone with two hands when she interviewed him.

[grandgnu]

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I love when DN made fun of Giang and was rubbing his chest

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Yeah, I saw him doing that. Chau Giang is THA' MAN! w00t! (looks at own avatar)

[grandgnu]

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Well she did hold that microphone with two hands when she interviewed him.

[/ QUOTE ] She's double-fisting it?

[Smoothcall]

Give me a break. I thought you were joking. Do you really think he meant it in any way the way you are twisiting it. C,mon, he's on tv.

[grandgnu]

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Give me a break. I thought you were joking. Do you really think he meant it in any way the way you are twisiting it. C,mon, he's on tv.

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I do believe he meant it in both ways. We've seen Matasow on TV and he's mentioned the size of Raymers gonads, right? Why is it so far fetched for Scotty to tell Shana she's gotta swallow?

[Temp Hutter]

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I ran PokerStove on your hand range with a couple of randoms thrown in. By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here, but regardless, the number for K8s is 45.7%.

I would like to make one point, though. Keep in mind that I didn't watch the broadcast, so I might be missing something (I apologize if I am). It seems that people are looking at this from the wrong perspective and are forgetting a key factor: Stolzmann ALSO has a wide range of hands there, many of which he might lay down. I don't care how tight he plays or has been playing; he opened on the button in a 4-handed final table with large blinds. That says very little. Does he open with Q9o there? Probably. Does he call the rest of his chips off? Questionable.

My point is this. If Scotty somehow knew that Stolzmann had K8s and still pushed, then yes, it's probably a bad play. Virtually any reasonable poker player would understand that they were receiving a big overlay in that spot with K8s against Scotty's range. But Scotty doesn't know Stolzmann's hand!! All he knows is that John opened on the button 4-handed and has shown a tendency to lay down when faced with heat (I pulled those assumptions from the post above. Again, I didn't see the show). Maybe Stolzmann folds many of his opening hands there. If he does, it's a huge coup for Scotty. And if he gets called, is it really that bad? As it was, he ran in to a tough hand and was still only a 2-1 dog.


Here's something else to think about. Give Stolzmann this range of opening hands: any pair, any ace, KQo-K8o, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q8s, QJo-Q9o, JTs, JTo, J9s, J9o, 9Ts, 9To. That's a very generous range for him. Really, we should probably dump the 9To/J9o stuff and add in a few more Kx's, but we'll stick with this because the range actually fares better against 89s. If you run PokerStove, you'll see that Scotty's hand has 39.1% equity. Again, against one of the worst reasonable ranges for Scotty's hand.

Now let's assume that Stolzmann doesn't just raise, he pushes. Stolz started with 575k. What kind of price is Scotty getting? 85k in dead money (25k/50k blinds and 10k in antes). He has already posted his blind, so it's 525k to call with 660k in the pot. He gets 1.26-1 on his call and needs 44.3% equity to make a breakeven call.

So with fold equity of ZERO, Scotty is making an equity mistake of 5% or less. Guess what happens when Stolzmann will fold 5% of his opening hands? Or 10%? Or 25%? Remember that every time Stolzmann folds, Scotty picks up a 'free' 335k.

With large blinds, you need to be very careful how you judge these all-in situations. I'm not saying that Scotty made a well-reasoned, mathematically logical move. For all I know, his fold equity could have been exactly zero. But to dismiss his move as bad poker because he'll usually get called is nonsense.

The Bear

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I agree. Best post I have read so far.

[Daniel Hoerr]

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By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here...

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"Raising my blind... Are you raising my blind everytime baby? Alright, ALL IN"

I'd say this verbal exchange combined with the quick move and the obvious looseness the prior few hands would significantly WIDEN the range...

[MonkeeMan]

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Now I want a t-shirt with the two of them on it and "You've Gotta Swallow Baby" as the logo. I bet I'd sell a million of those shirts, pure genius!

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Fixed your post.