QUEEN-QUEEN Offsuit

[nepenthe]

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I just skimmed through this thread. Am I the only one that didn't know what the CO was going to do before he did it?

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Nope, you're not alone.

I think this thread was doomed the second it was created. I mean, "Queen-Queen Offsuit." Comon, now.

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I think one of us is missing the point, and I would be surprised if it be I.

[AngryCola]

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I think this thread was doomed the second it was created. I mean, "Queen-Queen Offsuit." Comon, now

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I'd love to hear your counter-points to the last replies to your posts by Harv and the OP.

[AngryCola]

I'm going to post the flop and turn equity for this hand. Please, bear with me.

Lets give the CO a half decent hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], leaving him with only the flush draw and runner-runner. I will give the other 2 players random hands.

The flop equity shapes up like this:

733,055,400 games 435.266 secs 1,684,154 games/sec

Board: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.5982 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 34.1555 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { QcJc }
Hand 3: 16.1231 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 16.1231 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }

Your equity here is actually lower than the CO's equity!

Now, lets take a look at the turn equity:

32,580,240 games 19.639 secs 1,658,956 games/sec

Board: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 48.4535 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 19.6030 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { QcJc }
Hand 3: 15.9717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 15.9717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }

Here, you have regained a large edge and have a much higher equity. I prefer to charge double bets here, when I have a much higher edge.

If I gave the CO something like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you would be much further behind when you were raising on the flop.

This is why it is better to wait until the turn in many situations. But... what do I know? I guess I could be wrong.

[pudley4]

Played perfectly. (By "perfectly" I mean "exactly the way I would have played it") [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[CinnamonWind]

I'd have raised the turn instead. I love the first smooth call on the flop, and I'd have called again to set up a turn raise. Nobody on PP 3-6 is folding to a flop raise, so you cannot protect your hand that way on this board. At least you can charge them the max if you hand holds up. That's the way I see PP now, frankly--protecting a hand is very difficult in many spots, so when I don't feel it can be done I get tricky and try to extract the max with check raises and turn surprises.

[AngryCola]

I don't know what the hell I was thinking. In fact, I may not have been thinking at all. I'm going to start back at the beginning.

The smooth call on the flop isn't bad. Raising it wouldn't be bad either (pretty sure I said that at one point), but I still prefer the former. By smooth calling, two things can happen:

1) The CO just calls and you most likely get to raise the SB's bet on the turn. This, of course, allows you to reduce the odds for your opponents, and gets more money in when you have a bigger edge.

2) The CO raises the flop. When this happens, the jig is up, and your best move IS to 3 bet it. At this point, the pot has already become larger, and there are 3 other players (besides yourself) invested in calling one more bet.

I was not taking enough time to consider the positions of the players in this hand. Waiting until the turn to raise is just not going to work. The fact that the CO is doing the raising increases the chances he will be trying take the free card. Also, the SB "just calling" the CO's raise suggests that he will not be betting the flop.

In fact, waiting to raise the turn will have exactly these results in this hand:


Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls, CO raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (11 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

How I could have been so short-sighted is beyond me. There is nothing you can do about the turn. It's most likely going to go down in only one way. On top of that, there is less money in the pot by the river (the only difference in the two approaches). A CR on the turn IS too risky, because the CO has position and a probable good draw. Yep, I was wrong about that too.

You may not be the favorite on the flop, but you are certainly a favorite over a couple of the players. The raise by the CO has to change your strategy. Because of the action, there is nothing else you can do but raise the flop for value. You have to take advantage of his raise.

If you held something like TT, you might consider calling and waiting to see what the turn brings, because you could be much larger dog to the field than when you hold QQ. Interestingly, if the CO DID have something like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he most likely should have capped the flop himself for value.

I was really wrong about this hand, and was suffering from a severe case of stupidity. My apologies go out to anyone I claimed was wrong. Some of the opposing viewpoints did have some faulty logic, but their conclusions were correct in this case.

Oops! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[nepenthe]

CO folded the river.

SB called with THREE-THREE.

Thanks for everyone's comments.