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#31
07-01-2005, 07:43 PM
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Re: Bet or check this river?
omg this forum is getting worse and worse every day!
How can we have people who are talking about "bet because you'll have to call if he bets"? We're acting last on the river How can people say "if your opponent calls you don't even need to win 50% of the time for this bet to be correct"? The only way this could be correct would be if our opponent would fold hands that beat us. He's a calling station - he's not folding hands that beat us This is a clear check - there are vastly more hands that he will call with that beat you than there are hands that you will beat. 
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#32
07-01-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: Bet or check this river?
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#33
07-01-2005, 10:15 PM
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Re: Breaking down the Value + Bluff Equity Calculation
There have been some pretty bad posts on this thread so far. Thankfully you summed it up pretty well.
The point of betting would usually be to get better hands to fold, not to have worse hands call as your equation points out. All the talk about 50% and whatnot is pretty irrelevant.
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#34
07-02-2005, 01:00 AM
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Re: Breaking down the Value + Bluff Equity Calculation
BTW, when I mentioned 50%, I was using it as an example. I don't think there's a 50% chance of villain folding. I think it's much less. My analysis still stands.
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#35
07-02-2005, 01:31 AM
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Re: Breaking down the Value + Bluff Equity Calculation
Edit: Catt summed up my thoughts already...
The main thing here we need to consider is how often villain will fold a better hand. For example, if we knew villain would fold a better hand 20% of the time we should bet.
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