I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4. Table is 42.8/6.46/1.76.

Button is 18.5/6.1/1.5 and SB is 29.6/5.4/1.5. I don't have notes on these players and have only been at the table for one orbit.

Preflop: I am SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Five limpers to the Button, <font color="#cc3333">Button raises</font>, I call intending to check/raise most flops, BB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to try to fulfill the prediction in your title, I'll say that I think this is a bad plan.

I don't think going for a checkraise after you miss will accomplish much versus a field this big.

Plus, the bet may not come from where you expect it to.

I guess it's the "most flops" part I'm mostly questioning.

Anyway, I'd rather try to thin the field/raise for value preflop, while I still might catch and before anyone else does.

[Trix]

Raise preflop, check-call the river.

I dont get this though. You know everyone will hate your preflop call, but yet you make it anyway and dont want any comments on it ?

[rmarotti]

preflop play is awesome. Being able to offer someone 10:1 instead of 15:1 does make a lot of difference, doesnt it?

peace

john nickle

[britspin]

I'm another newbie practcising hand reading.

I'd raise AK from SB against this field because I want to get more money into pot, but you know that already!

From the button's preflop play we can't put him on any specific hand. There's just such a huge range.

His flop call and then turn raise can indicate anything from two pair up.

From the turn you've got to be pretty sure you're behind.

With the K, however you're ahead of several possible BB holdings (2h's J9, J6) and behind others several others (KJ K9, Q10, K6).

Given the lack of preflops reads, on the river I'd usually be happy betting and calling but given the player stats (I'm not expert on pokertracker as my site isn't compatable, but these are reasonable stats, no?) prob just check calling.

[Nick C]

I think probably our hand is losing on the river. However, I also think that, with BB calling a single Button raise in an 8-way(!) pot preflop, hands like J9o and J6s deserve a little more consideration than they've been getting.

I guess I'm saying (since the idea has come up) that I don't want to fold the turn. There's a good chance we're drawing dead, unfortunately, but I think we may have too many potential outs in a pot this big (even if we just have 3 outs versus KJ, a call isn't so bad -- well, except that it sets up another call on the river). Plus, there is some (small) chance we're ahead or are chopping.

[hicherbie]

whatever happens, dont fold.

and raise preflop, youre giving up too much to 8 players.

[jason_t]

Some things regarding preflop:

Big unsuited cards don't play well in large multiway pots. (cf. HPFAP.)

My equity will change dramatically depending on the flop. I passed up an equity edge preflop to try to exploit one postflop to maximize my chances of winning this already large pot. (cf. the TT example in SSH.)

I have no idea what AKo's equity edge against seven random hands is, but let's say it's something like 10%. Then in this particular case if I reraise I'd be risking 3 bets to win 21% of 7 bets (preflop folds after calls are rare at 2/4) plus 21% of what's already in the pot (assuming everyone calls), namely 14 bets. So, as far as the preflop betting is concerned, a 3-bet nets me 1.41 bets. Now if I just call to attempt to shrink the field postflop, I will have a bigger equity edge. For example, suppose I manage to shrink the field to a four-handed pot and I have a 20% equity edge. In this case I'm winning 40% of the preflop bets for a net of 3.6 bets. These numbers are merely estimates in an attempt to explain my ideas here. One thing to note is that my preflop equity edge is likely small since I'm not against random hands and my postflop equity edge even if I do manage to shrink the field won't be incredibly large unless I hit the flop because hands that call flop bets or flop check/raises likely connected with the flop.

Increasing the size of the pot minimizes the severity of the common mistakes that typical SS players make postflop.

Even HPFAP advocates sometimes just calling in the blinds with AKo (cf. p. 40--47.)

Lastly, stop trying to auto-pilot preflop. There's thinking to be done. I made a decision in an attempt to maximize my chance of winning this large pot. Does that make up for the lost bets from my preflop equity edge? I don't know. But I'm thinking about and not immediately dismissing the idea and I think that's important. I've folded AKo preflop before. I've 3-bet it from the SB before. It's situation dependent and here I chose to wait for a good flop to spring to life (keep in mind that 32% of the time I flop at least a pair); I want to win a large pot as soon as possible rather than just pumping and preying. (cf. Chapter 9 of TOP.)

Again, I don't know what nets me more in the long run but I do think it's not immediately obvious that 3-betting is best.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
(even if we just have 3 outs versus KJ, a call isn't so bad -- well, except that it sets up another call on the river

[/ QUOTE ]
Think about how often you're going to end up paying off the river with a losing hand even after improving and figure out how that changes your EV. I haven't done it but my guess is that you should fold the turn.

Flop coldcall/turn raise = scurrrrrrry

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

Even HPFAP advocates sometimes just calling in the blinds with AKo (cf. p. 40--47.)

[/ QUOTE ]
I told you this last night, I'll say it again here; HPFAP advocates checking your BB against 7 limpers with QQ.

[SomethingClever]

Another thing to consider: Will some of those limpers fold when it's two bets back to them?

If you can get 1 or 2 folds, it might make up for the other factors you listed, no?