98s on button play along - Page 4

#31 08-07-2005, 03:33 PM

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By checking here, this round is guaranteed to be +EV (unless you're drawing dead).

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Drawing dead? If you hit, you have the nut str8 and there's no flush draw.

EV is hard to calculate here because there as lots of variations depending on how many people call but... if you check, A donk bet on the turn (probably a steal attempt with nothing) is much more likely if you don't bet. And you definately don't have the odds to see the river.

If you bet, maybe 5% of the time it folds around and 10.5% of the time you hit the turn. The other 84.5%, you have 1, 2 or 3 callers(ignoring the occasional c/r which really ruins you free card play).

Now it gets hairy. You miss the flop. I certain % of the time (60, 70? -- probably very read dependent)it gets checked around. The rest of the time someone bets. If there were 2 or 3 callers to your flop bet, you might have implied odds to see the river, otherwise you're gone.

Putting numbers on this (especially implied odds) and calculating the EV is beyond me right now, but it lookks to me like betting is +EV compared to checking.

Art

bozlax · #32 08-07-2005, 06:07 PM

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Hmmm. Good and bad. We now have a double gutshot, but our weak top pair outs got dirtier (which was hardly unexpected).

I really want to check here and take my free card, but against 2 opponents, I wonder if I should bet again? (FYI, this is how I think at the table too...scary isn't it? Amazing that I actually am +BB/100.)

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If this is really how you think at the table, then, yes, it is scary. Holding 98 on a board of J653 is not a double-gutshot. It's a single-gutshot to the nuts and a single-gutshot to an OESD to the third nuts.

bozlax · #33 08-07-2005, 06:12 PM

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I like the PF raise personally, as long as the table isn't really bad. When people will call you all the way with anything, it doesn't make too much sense to raise with 98 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If however it will a) fool people and b) get them to payoff more when you flop something then I really like raising here. I'll read what others have to say now.

Brad

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I agree. No way in hell am I trying this at 1/2 or .50/1. Not to say that 2/4 is that much different, but I don't see nearly as much clling down with bottom pair, or A high. I'm still new to this limit though.

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I think this is enormously read-dependent. I've seen people make plays at 2/4 that made me think they had their decimal two places off. Wasn't the original read loose-passive? I don't raise this in that case. Just my $0.02.

VoraciousReader · #34 08-07-2005, 07:20 PM

If this is really how you think at the table, then, yes, it is scary. Holding 98 on a board of J653 is not a double-gutshot. It's a single-gutshot to the nuts and a single-gutshot to an OESD to the third nuts.

Good lord. Beyond scary. Terrifying. If this is how I read a board after a week away I think I'll go back to playing Old Maid.

...retreats shamefully into lurkdom...

benkath1 · #35 08-07-2005, 11:26 PM

Well, contrary to popular suggestions, I opted to pass on the free card opportunity and bet this turn. This is definately the last money I was putting in the pot UI.

I think that betting here is spewing and I don't think I'll do this anymore, but that's why I posted this hand. I couldn't believe they folded.

Thanks for playing along with me. I hope others have learned something.

I guess this is how I have managed to bet the turn more than I've called and folded combined Harv.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

bozlax · #36 08-08-2005, 12:33 AM

"On occassion I've been known to howl at the moon. Do ya understand?"

Identify movie and speaker.

benkath1 · #37 08-08-2005, 01:34 AM

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"On occassion I've been known to howl at the moon. Do ya understand?"

Identify movie and speaker.

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Bull Durham

bozlax · #38 08-08-2005, 01:51 AM

nh