Overplayed?

[Ulysses]

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But they keep right on doing it. It dont make no sense.

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It makes a lot of sense to me. At every level of poker, many people just do the same things that made them money at the level one level below. Some adapt, most don't.

[elysium]

hi steve
no. the BB backs down to coil's turn raise because he thinks coil is betting his outs. he knows coil picked up a draw. he wants coil to take a shot at him with his busted draw on the river.

the reason the turn raise is correct is because this may be coils only opportunity to show fold-out power. coil is correctly going for the fold with some prospects of leading. coil is not making a raise for value.

[Gabe]

Sorry, I didn't know it was going to happen when I saw you there the beginning of the week. As far as the hand goes, I'm on the fence. Against a strong player, I'm betting the turn 100% of the time. Against a strong player, I don't know.

[Steve Giufre]

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hi steve
no. the BB backs down to coil's turn raise because he thinks coil is betting his outs. he knows coil picked up a draw. he wants coil to take a shot at him with his busted draw on the river.


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Could be. By betting his out, I assume you mean he thinks Coilean may be raising the the turn with somethign like AQ or AJ with the ace of spades. But if thats the case, wouldnt he be more likely to three bet the turn, rather than smooth call and go for a checkraise on the river?

True, players, (possibly Coilean included) make this play with the bare ace of spades a fair amount on the time. But the BB should be aware that if Coilean does have the bare ace of spades, he's pretty likely to check behind on the river. Once his turn raise is called, I think he has to assume the BB is calling down, and the BB should know this.

[Senor Choppy]

Isn't the fact that they suspect a semi-bluff here reason for raising TPTK w/ the nut flush draw? He's raising for value, not trying to force his opponent to fold.

[cpk]

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If that's the case, they are much less likely to fold which means that you should be less likely to try this sort of play.

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So how does one adapt to this? Play for the nuts only? Semi-bluff only when innocuous-looking cards come? It seems like one would have to gamble a lot with junky hands. But then, I guess figuring out how to gain an edge over good players is difficult by its very nature.

[samdash]

I agree. I was a little confused by the point of Mason's post. However, I might be more inclined to just call the turn and raise the river. If his opponent can beat AK he'll have an easy 3 bet here and you have to call a 3 bet to see the river (nut flush draw). Raising the river even if unimproved might look more like a monster, but a 5 probably 3 bets on the river as well. At least you have the option to fold to a 3 bet on the river.

[adios]

but I've decided it's too time consumming and painful to do on a regular basis.

[J.A.Sucker]

The main problem is that your opponents will probably change gears on you, anyway. However, your points do have a lot of merit.

[elysium]

hi steve
no. coil is acting last. there is often an opportunity to get the fold by betting on the river after a semi-bluff type raise because of the possibility of being checked to. additionally, one of the reasons coil's turn raise is correct is because coil knows that the BB doesn't have the nut flush, but the BB doesn't know that coil doesn't. this doesn't remove the fact that after careful consideration of coil's betting pattern, you see that coil is betting the outs, it's still a great turn play by coil though because of the difficulty involved during the heat of battle, in trying to determine whether the bet is being made with the newly developed draw, or the nut flush. coil's raise is fairly safe here and not likely reraised due to the difficult decision coil has confronted his opponent with. if coil had the luxury to delve deeply into his position, the raise would lose a little luster. so coil too is limited somewhat by the stress of battle, and relys heavily upon the advantage of having the A of suit, and that his opponent will freeze up to the raise; but the stress of action doesn't leave coil with enough time to realize that he is not leading and that the raise will be called. the raise is still correct though even though it should have a reasonable expectation to get the fold of AA or AK because given the hostile conditions under which coil must decide, he can't be expected to determine whether or not he has a value bet. he doesn't. in fact, calling is better in this spot for that reason. the thing is even if coil usually deliberately hesitates in this spot, and a hesitation wouldn't be a suspicious indication of weakness, it is wrong to hesitate before a very solid type opponent. coil must act decisively. and it would be wrong to send the free showdown down in flames; wrong to give up on getting the fold; wrong not to stop this opponent from bluffing on the river; and wrong not to get the bets in there while coil can in the event coil improves to the nut flush, unless coil can determine with reasonable certainty that he doesn't in fact have a value bet. coil doesn't know that, nor can coil expect to know that, or pause to ponder about it. nor can coil throw away the advantages that are known a raise will give.

we know that coil shouldn't have raised for another reason that coil should have known about at the time. the raise wasn't being made for a free showdown. without the free showdown, a call is in order. but that again is a hindsight issue due to coil's error in not including that important raising reason in his list. that still doesn't remove the fact that when in the same position as coil was on the turn, raising is correct. you need greater certainty than is humanly possible under those conditions that the raise isn't being made for value before throwing away all the benefits of the raise.