J10 on the button multiway, flop middle pair

[Roadstar]

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If he bets, hes likely to have an ace and less likely to have a T. So you're calling likely to lose or to split, let it go.

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This is why taking a free turn is so stupid. If you raise the flop bet, you continue on the turn so you get a free showdown.

Pretend you're villian for a second, its checked to you in LP and you bet with JT on the ATx flop (from the OP) and get raised by CO or Button. You call the bet, and villian checks behind on the turn. I'm betting any nonspade river. Even the most retarded players can read that as a missed flush draw and will proceed to bet with anything. By betting the turn, and taking the free showdown(if you choose) you prevent villian from making any moves and bluffing you out of your pot.

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*Only* the most retarded players will read that as a missed flush draw. Both you and I know the correct play for a flush draw given the LP bet is to call to bring others along.

Like I said, the free card play can create a 5:1 situation, which is enough compensation even if you ONLY win when you improve (20% chance of improving, assuming 5 outs, there must be a little bit of implied odds there too but we'll ignore that) - i.e. go ahead and assume he has an Ace.

[lufbradolly]

I'd fold on the flop your most likely behind and your probably not folding anyone behind with a pair of aces or a flush draw.

Also if your behind then you only have 3 clean outs.

[Highn]

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I think the problem with taking the free card on the turn is that it looks like I'm betting a flush draw on the flop and if villain is at all aware of that he may bet the river with a small pair or a bluff which puts us in a tough spot. On the flip side, we may be betting his weak Ace for him if we bet the turn. I'm torn here.

I was new to the table so I didn't have a read which would be nice here and I usually err on the aggressive side against an unknown who's playing passively, though this may have not been the best spot to be aggressive.

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I think your logic is flawed here, if we take the free card on the turn and he bets the river because of that, or we assume he might x% of the time, we can call him if the pot's big enough. Not that it applies to this pot 'cus its way too small. But in general him trying to bluff you out a pot after taking a free card is not allways a negative thing.

If he has you beat and you bet the turn and check behind him on the river it costs you 1 bb to see the river. If you check behind on the turn it costs you nothing to see the river and 1 bb to showdown, which also might've induced a bluff every now and then.

Sorry if that's not making sense been writing a casereport all day, I'm knackered.

[deception5]

Vote4Pedro is right on here and imho OP played this perfectly. If you have the best hand on the turn, you are likely to have the best hand on the river. You have at most 5 outs to improve (2 may be tainted) and villian may have up to 17. A free card will hurt you more often than it will help you.

1.) Villian is on a draw.

In this case, the villian will always put in a bet on the turn but will only bluff the river sometimes when he misses. We'll almost always make more from draws on the turn than by counting on bluffs. If villian has a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he could have as many as 17 outs against us.

Result: Betting the turn is more profitable.

2.) We are behind and do not improve.

We will put in a bet on the turn and check behind on the river or check the turn and call the river. Either way we lose 1 bet.

Result: Betting and checking are about the same.

3.) We are ahead of a small pocket pair or a worse jack.

We will likely win 1 bet either way (assuming we value bet the river). However if we improve we will put in a second bet on the river making more on those times we bet the turn.

Result: Betting is more profitable because of the chance to make a second bet when we improve.

4.) We are behind but we improve.

We win an extra bet if we bet the turn and river and may or may not win an extra bet if we check behind on the turn and bet/raise the river.

Result: We lose the opportunity to improve if we are check/raised on the turn if we bet. On the other hand we will make more bets by betting the turn if villian just calls and then we improve on the river than if we check the turn. Most tags would value bet the river with an ace which would give us the opportunity to raise.

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2.) We are behind and do not improve.

We will put in a bet on the turn and check behind on the river or check the turn and call the river. Either way we lose 1 bet.

Result: Betting and checking are about the same.

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In this case if villain has QT or KT we give him a chance to fold it if we bet the turn, but not if we check.

[tiltaholic]

nice hand
(except i raise preflop)

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BUT by the time villain bets there are 7 SB. If you assume the free card play works, essentially the pot after the flop will be 10SB or 5BB. You likely have 5 outs or 20% of making it by the river and you're getting a crack at winning 5BB (or maybe more if you improve and villain bets, and I assign no outs to backdoor straight draw) for 1BB (cost of your play). So its NOT that bad buddy! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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In this case you're risking 2SB on the flop to win the 7SB already there plus the 1SB that you assume he will add after your raise. That's only 4:1. But I guess you can assume you win another BB on the river when you make your hand, bringing it back up to 5:1.

So you're getting 5:1 on a 4:1 shot, which is ok if you assume that the free card play works every time. I think that with the pot this small though, I just fold to the bet on the flop. Is that wrong?

[Absolution]

You could raise preflop for sure, but it's a small edge I'd think.

This smallish pot with 6 in and an ace showing/2 to the flush would probably be a fold for me here though in the heat of the moment. Most seem to like your raise though. I think it's another marginal situation and probably doesn't matter much in terms of EV (unless you count future image in which case raising would be better). If it had been raised preflop this would be an easy protection raise in a big pot.

[deception5]

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In this case if villain has QT or KT we give him a chance to fold it if we bet the turn, but not if we check

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Please reread this and note that hero has JT. How could this possibly be bad?

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In this case if villain has QT or KT we give him a chance to fold it if we bet the turn, but not if we check

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Please reread this and note that hero has JT. How could this possibly be bad?

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Sorry, I was just saying that this would tilt the decision in favour of a bet on the turn.