I've got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, Phase II:

MP3 pushes for 15K, Button pushes for 27.5K, you are in the the BB with 31K and have A8s. It is 22.5K to call with 50K in the pot. Your play, sir?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot odds are sweet, but factor in the strong likelihood that your A is dominated and/or a pair above 8 and you're no good. 2-1 is great if, say, button has 77 and MP3 is pushing any 2. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'd fold.

[A_PLUS]

MP3: 15200
Button: 27500
SB: 50500 (after posting)
Hero: 31000 (after posting)

OK, so lets do some math:

If we assume that MP3 will push 80% of his hands here, it gives us a range of

MP+3: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+,7 4s+,64s+,54s

This is where it gets interesting. If we assume that CEV=$Ev at this point, and there is no chance that SB abd BB come along (more on this), then Button would be correct to call (push) with 68% of his hands

or Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T6o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+,65s (68%).

But the SB and BB are yet to act, meaning he will need a better hand than this to push. So, lets make it 50%.
or (22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s)

So, given that range, what hands should BB call with getting >2-1.

To answer this, you need to get fairly complex, given that the side pot is so large.

Needless to say, A8s, is firmly in the BB's range here.


BUT

Not many players will be pushing 50% of their hands here from the button. Correct or not, you just dont see it all that often. So, what is a good range for the button?

I suspect 22+, A2s+, A6o+, KTs, KJo, QTs, JTs, T9s would be close. Given that range, BB has 46.175% equity.

So, on the side pot of 24,600, the BB has 11,359 in equity.

So, for this to be a profitable call, he will need > 12,140 in equity in the main 74,000 pot, which equates to 16.5% equity. Holding the Button's range constant, the only range of hand(s) that MP+3 could have that makes this call -CEV is AA. By adding in KK, A8s has apx 20% equity.

So after way too many words. I think A8s is a call from the BB. Also, I think many players miss a lot of value opportunities in situations like this from MP+3 and BBs perspective.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
MP3: 15200
Button: 27500
SB: 50500 (after posting)
Hero: 31000 (after posting)

OK, so lets do some math:

If we assume that MP3 will push 80% of his hands here, it gives us a range of

MP+3: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+,7 4s+,64s+,54s

This is where it gets interesting. If we assume that CEV=$Ev at this point, and there is no chance that SB abd BB come along (more on this), then Button would be correct to call (push) with 68% of his hands

or Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T6o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+,65s (68%).

But the SB and BB are yet to act, meaning he will need a better hand than this to push. So, lets make it 50%.
or (22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s)

So, given that range, what hands should BB call with getting >2-1.

To answer this, you need to get fairly complex, given that the side pot is so large.

Needless to say, A8s, is firmly in the BB's range here.


BUT

Not many players will be pushing 50% of their hands here from the button. Correct or not, you just dont see it all that often. So, what is a good range for the button?

I suspect 22+, A2s+, A6o+, KTs, KJo, QTs, JTs, T9s would be close. Given that range, BB has 46.175% equity.

So, on the side pot of 24,600, the BB has 11,359 in equity.

So, for this to be a profitable call, he will need > 12,140 in equity in the main 74,000 pot, which equates to 16.5% equity. Holding the Button's range constant, the only range of hand(s) that MP+3 could have that makes this call -CEV is AA. By adding in KK, A8s has apx 20% equity.

So after way too many words. I think A8s is a call from the BB. Also, I think many players miss a lot of value opportunities in situations like this from MP+3 and BBs perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Button's range is still too wide under your analysis. I mean, look at OP's OP. Yes, 77 is in there, but 22? A2?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Button's range is still too wide under your analysis. I mean, look at OP's OP. Yes, 77 is in there, but 22? A2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that MP+3 is really going to push top 80% of hands here? I do. So I think this is a reasonable calling range for a average/good player on the button. I think you are making a mistake by not accounting for the stack sizes of the players. The button is desperate here. 7xBB, with antes is a spot where I am pushing any time it is unopened to me in late position, or calling an even more desperate player's push with any reasonable hand. A2 and 22 definitely fit that description. I agree that you may not see it as often as correct play would dictate. It is really dependent on the player. But I would push A2 there, so you cant ignore it from the range

[schwza]

first, i think pushing with 22/a2 would be really bad. that's not really the issue though. it's that very few people would repush with 22 or a2. there were several people in the thread advocating (incorrectly, imo) folding 77.

the best way to do this would be to assign probabilities to hands for button - e.g., he pushes 22 10%, 33 12%, 77 80%, etc. i don't know of any software that does this though.

[A_PLUS]

You can just use poker stove and weight the results.
for range one use 22+,A2+. Then tighten up, etc, etc.
If you take an average of these, you will be essentially be overweighting the better hands.

I agree that you may not see a repush that often with A2. But given a 7xBB stack, I dont think it is that rare.

I would really like to read why you thik this is incorrect?
What range do you but Mp+3 and his <4xBB stack on? What type of range do you think SB and BB call with?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
You can just use poker stove and weight the results.
for range one use 22+,A2+. Then tighten up, etc, etc.
If you take an average of these, you will be essentially be overweighting the better hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i guess i meant there was no software i knew of that let you do it easily. you could also do it with a pencil and a lot of paper.

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you but Mp+3 and his <4xBB stack on? What type of range do you think SB and BB call with?

[/ QUOTE ]

if MP3 is in fact pushing any 2, then 22 is ~50.6% to win against MP3. if we get heads up with MP3, this is pretty good. there is 6k+1.8k in dead money, so we should have a chip profit of ~4k. the fact that a blind will call is a big of a problem.

what is a much bigger problem is that MP3 does not have any 2. some people have any 2 there, but most do not (including me, right or wrong). you really don't see someone getting busted on a hand like 73o often enough to believe that people are pushing any 2 in these kinds of situations very often. and the most likely hands to get tossed are 2x, which really hurts our % against MP3's range.

my point is that even if it's correct to push any 2, they don't. even if it's correct for button to repush 22, he doesn't.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
first, i think pushing with 22/a2 would be really bad. that's not really the issue though. it's that very few people would repush with 22 or a2. there were several people in the thread advocating (incorrectly, imo) folding 77.

the best way to do this would be to assign probabilities to hands for button - e.g., he pushes 22 10%, 33 12%, 77 80%, etc. i don't know of any software that does this though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting...i like that.

Anyway, i agree, and with A-plus too. I think it is very correct for Button to push with a wide range here, and if he is good and aware then 77 is a nobrainer. I would just lower the likiehood of the range's low end like schwza was talking about. This shouldnt be a polemic on why A2 and 22 suck calling here.

[CardSharpCook]

I really like all the math work you did, A+, but I agree with Schwza here. Your ranges for both players are too loose. I can't imagine MP3 pushing NE2 with 4 players left to act and (arguably) no FE. I think his range includes any ace, pair, suited connector, 2 broadway cards, and for some players, any king. As for the button, I certainly don't include Q4 in his repush range [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I'd take MP3s range and tighten that to 55+, Axs, Suited broadway, KQ, AceBroadway.

Against this range A8s has about 30% equity on the main and a 42.5% eq in the side pot.

.3 * 47K = 14100
.425 * 24K = 8670
=22770
It is 23K to call, meaning 23000-22770 = -230
Thus, if you accept these ranges, it is a fold. In fact, unless you wish to make a wild change to these ranges it is still a fold - you'd have to really open up the button for this to be +EV.

CSC

Also, to those of you who responded "A8 is too likely to be dominated by a better ace" - you need to do more work than that.

[A_PLUS]

Im getting different results

24.6K in side pot
.425 equity
-----
10,455

49,400 in main pot
X equity
-------
13,045 (equity from main pot needed)

13045/49,400 = 26.4

30% > 26.4%

I am interested in what range of hands you would push from the Button, and why? I still think 22 is a good push until someone proves me wrong.