Turn: For Bettor, or worse?

[Redd]

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Don't discount those times when you bet the turn and one opponent folds and the other opponent is also drawing and you both miss on the river and you win with Ace-high.

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What percent of the time would you estimate that we're ahead of both Villains on the turn?

[Redd]

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Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

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The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

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But if we check this turn here I think we lose our "implied odds". It would appear to the other players that we probably have a premium pair here given the way we would play it (by betting the turn). If we check, I believe our hand is completely given away and we lose any additional bets we could have gained on the river.

Lozing

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Like I said, I don't think this is really relvant to the amount of value we get on the turn. But I think that the contrary would be true, that we would increase the likelihood that Villain(s) will pay off a river bet to look us up if we check the turn.

[quoteLike I said, I don't think this is really relvant to the amount of value we get on the turn. But I think that the contrary would be true, that we would increase the likelihood that Villain(s) will pay off a river bet to look us up if we check the turn.

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Yeah, this is completely irrelevent to the value on the turn but I believe it to be extremely important for the entire value of the hand.

Are you advocating a check on the turn and a bet on the river? Or am I misreading you?

Lozing

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I'm advocating a check on the turn and a bet/raise on the river if we hit any of our outs. I wouldn't value-bet ace-high on the river, and I'm not very crazy about doing so on the turn.

Okay, just wanted to doublecheck. I highly doubted you were value betting Ace high here w/ two players in on the river.

[Harv72b]

There are a other factors to consider besides the value of a turn bet--I didn't mention them because I thought they were accepted as a given.

As I said, this is a semi-bluff, too--if we can get one or both opponents to fold better hands, or even hands that would become better with the river card (i.e., A7 when the river is a 7), that's a very good thing. If someone called the flop bet with A5 or KJ but will now release it, that's also good. So you have that to consider.

You also have the metagame. If Hero hits the river and shows down, some disgruntled wanna-be TAG is going to see that he bet the flop and turn with just ace high and decide to call down (or play back) with an underpair when Hero's holding QQ or AA the next time. This is especially true if that TAG-wannabe folds the best hand on the turn this time.

There's the potential that 1 player is on a weaker draw and will call a bet on the turn, but not call a bet on the river when Hero hits. And yes, disguising Hero's hand by betting the turn will yield additional river bets from time to time...for example, one of them is calling down with QT and spikes their 2 pair on the river--they are less likely to give Hero credit for the nut straight when he's been betting every street. If someone else rivers a straight with a hand like J9s, that's even better.

And of course, there's the free showdown potential. When Hero bricks the river he can just check through rather than worry about whether or not his opponent is trying to steal the pot with a busted draw when it goes bet, fold on the river.