is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve

[badbill7]

Baronzues do you think we have enough eb here to make the turn bet, is this a close call or clear cut?

[bozlax]

With a four-flush on the flop you're a 2:1 underdog to make your flush by the river. That's 50%, right there. The "more than" part comes from your overcards and backdoor straight draws.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Baronzues do you think we have enough eb here to make the turn bet, is this a close call or clear cut?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too close to tell, since it's hard to tell whether he has a pair/set (which means our bet is -EV), whether he has a made flush and he wants to c/r (which means our bet is VERY -EV), or whether he's on a flush draw (in which case our bet is +EV). But since we can take a free showdown if we arent checkraised, we don't have to worry about being bluffed out on the river by a worse hand.

[hemstock]

Can anyone do the calculations please?
Hero has 9 spades, 3 kings, 3 aces and 3 queens that will win him the hand. So that's about 40% to have the best hand by the river? If he is heads up and putting half of the money in the pot isn't that like a -10% edge?
Please explain

[badbill7]

Dont mean to make this confusing but are we then making this somewhat of a bluff because if not do we still have a positive expectation with our bet here. Im not sure giving away our hand is enough of a reason to throw another bet in here even though it suits my style of play just fine. Im trying to refine my game because i only average about a bb every 100. tks

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone do the calculations please?
Hero has 9 spades, 3 kings, 3 aces and 3 queens that will win him the hand. So that's about 40% to have the best hand by the river? If he is heads up and putting half of the money in the pot isn't that like a -10% edge?
Please explain

[/ QUOTE ]

He asked why we raise the flop, and the answer is equity.

On the turn, we -EV betting but there are other factors that we need to consider, like the chance that we are ahead already, the chance to take a free showdown, the chance to fold out an unimproved 8, etc.

[badbill7]

tks baron and bozlux. Ill have my mentor look at this string and see what he thinks. My last question is it seems like you two play a little outside the mathmatical lines ie. betting when we have a negative current ev. How did you come to these styles of play and is it very profitable for you tks again and nice info

[gopnik]

nice turn bet, I like it

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A read on the opponent is pretty important here. For those talking about value on the turn, that really depends on what we think he has. If he as little as 33, we have no value in this bet unless we think our fold equity is quite high:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: Js 8s 2s Tc

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:56.8182 % 56.82% 00.00% { 3h3s }
Hand 2:43.1818 % 43.18% 00.00% { AsQd }

If we felt our opponent was on a draw, then we can charge him.

So, if he's passive, and betting into the pfr here, I think there's a decent chance that he has a made hand. As seen, if that's simply 33, we're behind here and there is no value in a turn bet. If he has something much stronger, our situation is even worse:

Board: Js 8s 2s Tc

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:68.1818 % 68.18% 00.00% { 8c8d }
Hand 2:31.8182 % 31.82% 00.00% { AsQd }

If he bet into us on the flop with his made hand, I highly doubt a loose passive is folding unless maybe another flush card falls and he doesn't hold a spade.

If he's aggressive, then we can think about charging him when he checks the turn. The only thing I hate about that is that is takes the chance of a c/r here up a bit. Normally, I'll take that chance because I think it's more important to not give free cards than to worry about getting c/red. The interesting thing about this hand though is that almost any draw he's on, our draw is better.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
you're going to have to fold to his bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on how aggressive this player is.... If someone is folding this to a river bet UI against anyone, they're folding to river bets way too often.