Dead AA in capped pot - Page 3

rharless · #21 03-26-2003, 05:05 PM

Excellent statement: "As for the fact that a T9 won this particular pot that is irrelevant. But if he insists that it is relevant then ask him if he would have called preflop with T9?" [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

I really did just pick 10 hands at random, and just didn't bother "jimmying" the input to get the output I "wanted." But, I like how you were able to change just 3 hands and the sim gives entirely different results. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

Jimbo · #22 03-26-2003, 05:29 PM

Rharless,

My hands were nearly random based off your chart but it appeared that you intentionally killed the two aces so I had to intentionally adjust for this (seemingly non-random [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] ) event.

Here is a link that will show how AA (and most all hands for that matter) does against truly all random hand possibilities from 1 to 9 opponents without entering them manually in Two-Dimes.

http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm

rharless · #23 03-26-2003, 05:53 PM

I did intentionally kill the two Aces, as that is the "point" that is made by the person who actually played the hand. Or rather, didn't play the hand. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] Your sim kills the two Aces as well. The only real difference I could find in your adjustments was that you removed the KK hand, and the 88's odds for sets have gone down since another hand has 98.

I know about how AA does against 9 random hands -- was wondering more so: how much EV do you lose from not being able to flop a set, and then how much EV you gain back by the fact that two of the hands are nearly dead against your hand? This is basically the essence of the argument against my friend in the hand posted.

I'm thoroughly enjoying the participation in this thread. Thanks Jimbo and everyone for the responses thus far!

Jimbo · #24 03-26-2003, 06:18 PM

If that is the essence of your friends argument then I see no way to convince him. I suppose you could ask him why when he is raised by an EP player he doesn't put him on AA everytime. You might tell him that it is less likely for someone else to have an ace in their hand since he held 2 of them. Let him chew on that logic for a little while! [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Ed Miller · #25 03-26-2003, 06:20 PM

I cried when I read this. I need to take a shower now... [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]

Bob T. · #26 03-26-2003, 07:18 PM

Sometimes AA wins monster pots unimproved. I think that your friend doesn't have much gamble in him, if he can find a way to muck AA preflop in this situation. Maybe he should take up a quieter hobby.

J.R. · #27 03-26-2003, 07:35 PM

Might as well have been. It was at the Hyatt and 4 players were waiting for the 5-5 to get going. I agree that the range of hands is somewhere between random and what was listed. But in a family capped pot in a CO 2-5 game, there has to be some real garbage out there.

BTAL · #28 03-26-2003, 10:29 PM

It sounds like I'm one of the very few who think that your friend did the right thing. His AA probably has no chance of improving, as has been said, being that both aces are most likely in one of his nine opponents' hands. He does have a huge advantage over AK, and if there are two AK's out there, he'll almost definitely beat one of those.

The problem is that there's almost definitely more than one pocket pair out there as well. There may be as many as four with 10 hands seeing a capped pre-flop. The chances of one of those pocket pairs making their set is just too great. Even if nobody does hit their set, a two pair, straight, flush, or trips takes him, unless of course it's a one card straight or flush with his ace being the nut. But those are both serious longshots compared with one of nine other hands hitting their draws to his Aces.

I'd muck the pocket aces as well.

Jimbo · #29 03-26-2003, 10:39 PM

I found the concept funny the first time, now with someone agreeing, it becomes at the very least a bit odd.

bernie · #30 03-27-2003, 02:29 AM

the only time id think of mucking AA preflop is in a tourney. even then, it's rare. but thats the only time.

about sims.

as (i think jimbo mentioned), one thing about sims is that many are unrealistic as far as play during the hand. not everyone is going to the showdown. so the results are going to be a little skewed. but they will give you an idea to chew on...

if a hand like T9o won this pot, your friend is leaving alot of chips on the table in a game like this folding AA here. im sure there are other plays, maybe even postflop, where he gives up too easy. be careful what you learn from him

someone mentioned AA winning 20% in this spot. thats about 5-1. and youre getting much better odds with all the callers. the trick is knowing when to dump it postflop and not throw rice at the wedding. after all, after the honeymoon, AA just shacks up with everyone else anyway.

b