Re: 5/10 Party, do I lay this down?
Against that board, most of the time I'm checking the turn with the intention of calling the river. This guy thinks I've got a jack/one pair type of hand, so if I validate his belief by checking the turn, he may bluff/value bet the river with weaker hands than a flush. This also keeps the pot small, which is what I want at this point. If he checks the river, then I might make a 1/2 pot value bet.
FWIW, against many opponents I would toss this hand to the turn check mini raise. Although I might make the turn call, I don't see how you can call the river against a relative unknown.
Turn check mini raises, by and large, suck. With a hand that can win a showdown, against a scary board, in a situation where I pretty much have to fold to a check raise, I check and get value from the river. If an A, J, or heart hits the river, I can fold to a big bet, but a big bet is less likely since the pot is so much smaller and he thinks my hand is so much weaker.
I don't think there are too many hands villian can call with on the turn that a 9 high flush beats, especially since there might be another even bigger bet coming on the river. This is why I like the turn check. He can call (play bluff police) with many more hands on the river when he closes the action. Anything he does call with that's behind on the turn has many outs against my hand. I'm not worried about protecting my hand here as much as I'm worried about mimimizing my losses with a 2nd best hand.
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