40k Breakeven stretch (stats/cry for help) - Page 3

balkii · #21 07-06-2005, 05:11 PM

2) You CR% is really low. Maybe you are missing out on some value here and maybe you are making youself a little too easy to read.

This is a great point and something I have been thinking about lately. I am guilty of playing a little too straightforward at times. more checkraises. I like it

bugstud · #22 07-06-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your numbers look solid and SpicyG was definitely someone I didn't care to have at my table. A couple of things you may want to think about:

1) Your AF looks a shade high as others have mentioned.
2) You CR% is really low. Maybe you are missing out on some value here and maybe you are making youself a little too easy to read.
3) You may be folding your SB to a steal a little too much, though that's probably a tiny leak.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see anything wrong with your stats at all, and what little I've played with you I've happened to outflop you and you've given me excessive action.

balkii · #23 07-06-2005, 05:15 PM

you 3-bet me with A7o!! I couldnt believe it. regardless tho I should have bet/called the turn instead of checkraising.

MAxx · #24 07-06-2005, 05:21 PM

Here were my 2 notes on Spicey G (118 hands):

1) "Very agrressive on Turn, potentially overaggressive." The following hand shows why I thought this. I had no read before this, and I did not think most players would lead this turn. It won you the pot here, and may have been the right play... but I could see you getting blasted up pretty bad vs big fields at times if you always go with guns blazing. You are the CO here.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero folds, MP calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

SpicyG shows [ Tc, Th ] two pairs, kings and tens.

2) "been folding lots of flops after I 3bet from sb" (I actually started 3betting from the SB a little light after you gave up on the flop several times- this could have just been a random occurance though)

If you happen to discover my handle from these comments, please keep it to yourself.

marand · #25 07-06-2005, 05:28 PM

The only strange thing I could see is 42.6% turn bet.
That looks very high to me.

Perhaps you are betting the turn when you have no hand and no way to win the pot by betting against 2 calling stations?

bugstud · #26 07-06-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you 3-bet me with A7o!! I couldnt believe it. regardless tho I should have bet/called the turn instead of checkraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, against what I open with in the CO it's probably right to do so, looks like you maybe not.

I was tihnking the KTo vs your 77 hand to be honest.

jrobb83 · #27 07-06-2005, 05:29 PM

In the last 50k hands my stats are incredibly similar to yours, with a few exceptions. My vpip is near 24.7 and my pfr is 17.1. These differences appear to be the exclusive result of 1)defending more from the sb against steals, 2)defending more in the bb against a steal hu, and 3)stealing more. I am also play a few more hands utg.

Other than this our stats are nearly identical. My postflop agg numbers are pretty much identical (including a freakishly high as some say turn agg factor).

I am, however, winning at a respectable rate over these hands. The significant difference is the win at sd. Mine is 54. Its possible that I am simply better at chosing when to go to sd, but it is much more likely that you have been running badly.

(Or of course it's possible we both suck and I have been running well [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]).

Grisgra · #28 07-06-2005, 05:31 PM

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If I could run at 1bb/100 while 4-tabling 10/20, I'd be the happiest guy around.

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Perhaps in theory, but given your risk of ruin starting out, not to mention the horrible swings, you might never reach 100k hands. With a win rate of 1BB/100, your huge downswings are only going to be slightly less numerous than your huge upswings. You'd be doubting yourself all the time, -75BB and -100BB swings would be commonplace, and you will almost certainly have long, long stretches where you'd break even or even lose money over tens of thousands of hands.

And if your true win rate is 1BB/100 . . . just a little tilt, a little drop in the quality of your play is enough to make you a loser.

Unless you have the patience and confidence of a Zen Master . . . not really the place to be. Me, I'm happy with the 2.5BB/100 thing while 2-tabling. (Though I'm now starting to move to 3 tables.) Much easier on the ole psyche. And the chance that I have one of those confidence-crushing break-even stretches of tens of thousands of hands is much, much lower.

balkii · #29 07-06-2005, 05:32 PM

i think i still like my play in that hand. the turn bet was easier than the flop bet, dont you think?

balkii · #30 07-06-2005, 05:36 PM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
you 3-bet me with A7o!! I couldnt believe it. regardless tho I should have bet/called the turn instead of checkraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, against what I open with in the CO it's probably right to do so, looks like you maybe not.

I was tihnking the KTo vs your 77 hand to be honest.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes I remember that now. thats a tough spot. I expect to be best of course frequently on that flop, and you have pretty some pretty aggressive numbers - i figured you could raise the flop wtihout a pair. definitely looks overplayed...but i'm not sure how else i would play it.