Daily Hand Post: "Amazingly Standard" AQ?

[NDHand]

Good hand... good reminder of what to do with that holding

[thirddan]

you don't need to be right 50% of the time...only about 1 time in 8...

[istewart]

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you don't need to be right 50% of the time...only about 1 time in 8...

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He knows, but the original quote said "most times he won't have a pair," i.e. Hero wins this pot >50% of the time.

[Victor]

have u ever seen him bluff the riv?

[jason_t]

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boringly standard.

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Didn't someone post something about hands like these?

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I wouldn't have posted it if I thought it was standard. You might think it's standard, but can you explain why? Probably not.

[gaming_mouse]

I think an important question to ask is: Is the flush draw necessary to make the river call correct? If you think it's not necessary, would your answer change if your opponent was a TAG?

[SmileyEH]

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zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

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I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

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Often enough I would think. Something like 1 in 6 seems reasonable.

-SmileyEH

[CallMeIshmael]

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I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

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With a very very good read (> 1k hands WATCHED, not just played with), this is exceedingly difficult.

With the information we have, this is essentially impossible.

To come up with any analysis we have to make estimates about:

- His CCing range
- What he calls the flop with
- What he calls the turn turn
- What he bets the river with when checked to

When you are making so many estimates based on so little information, the analysis wont have much meaning.


But.. that doesnt mean that we dont think it is highly likely that his analysis will show that calling the river is +EV. Because it will.


(I think the fact that my first idea was to mention quantum mechanics in this reply means that I've been spending WAY too much time in S/M/P).

[SmileyEH]

Haha, I've totally used wave forms collapsing as an analogy for my phsyics friends when describing hand ranges.

-SmileyEH

[CallMeIshmael]

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Haha, I've totally used wave forms collapsing as an analogy for my phsyics friends when describing hand ranges.

-SmileyEH

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Then you should so get into posting here. It will easily be the best forum on here if it takes off.

(Also seems to be very UMass heavy)