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#22
06-15-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: Borg 10/20 TT -- play along street by street
My first thought is to check with your read. He is not calling anything you beat. I'd think he woulda bet a J already though. I'd actually probably bet and call a raise wondering why anyone would play a J like that.
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#23
06-15-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: Borg 10/20 TT -- play along street by street
[ QUOTE ]
Not that I'm arguing against a value bet, but what do you think this weak-folding opponent is calling the river with? [/ QUOTE ] A pair of 8's, 99. [ QUOTE ] he limps with some pretty weak hands. [/ QUOTE ] This increases the probability that he has an 8 here, and basically I don't see him ever playing anything that beats you this way. You won't get called _very_ often but of the times you do, you are going to be good way more than 50% of the time.
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#24
06-15-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: Borg 10/20 TT -- play along street by street
Any 8, 99, 77, 66, 55, 44, or a 3. We'll assume he folds A high, but if he had a J, you would have heard about it, and he probably would have bet out with a J or a 3, for fear you check behind.
If he calls, I'm saying he has a 3 a significant minority of the time, but I value bet this 100% of the time.
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#28
06-15-2005, 03:58 PM
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Re: Borg 10/20 TT -- play along street by street
[ QUOTE ]
Against an average opponent, I agree. But I'd be absolutely shocked if this guy called with one of those hands. [/ QUOTE ] If you really have reason to believe (over a large enough sample) that this guy is *that* weak, I have no problem with checking behind (I think). One thing to think about, is if he folds 99 here he also folds TT, so we steal half the pot every once in a great while by betting. In addition, the rest of the table sees us drag a fairly large pot without showing a hand down, it's possible that our value bets are more likely to get called later on.
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