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#1
05-09-2005, 11:35 AM
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Re: Flop decision
Since the suggestions are somewhat split, which I expected, let me ask a couple of questions.
1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? 2) What is anyone's guess as to my equity against the other 5 hands? 3) What is anyone's guess as to how much betting increases that equity, on average? 4) What is anyone's guess as to how much my equity increases if I'm check/raised by one of the TAG's? 
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#3
05-09-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
Since the suggestions are somewhat split, which I expected, let me ask a couple of questions. [/ QUOTE ] This is how'd I'd quickly break it down at the table in the short 30 seconds or whatever I have. [ QUOTE ] 1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? [/ QUOTE ] A9, A7, A4. Basically a Pair or higher. 88 on down. Sets – sure. Possibly overs, if they were really jiggy players. [ QUOTE ] 2) What is anyone's guess as to my equity against the other 5 hands? [/ QUOTE ] Well on the fly at the table, I think I’d recognize I’m probably greater than 17% - so I’m playing. 17% being close to even equity [ QUOTE ] 3) What is anyone's guess as to how much betting increases that equity, on average? [/ QUOTE ] Toughie. Intuitively if I’m right around 17% on the flop – I’d say for every fold that my bet would achieve, I pick up the proportionate amount of equity. Meaning if I get it 4 way – I’ve increase to 25% [ QUOTE ] 4) What is anyone's guess as to how much my equity increases if I'm check/raised by one of the TAG's? [/ QUOTE ] A CR by A9 that folds the field I’m happy with – A CR from 99 that folds the field – I’m not liking it much. Tough to answer this one – facing the field with two bets compared to my single bet above…. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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#4
05-09-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? [/ QUOTE ] Getting check/raised by UTG or BB would be bad news here. If they had a hand that needed protection, they would likely have bet out hoping for MP1 to raise. There is also virtually no drawing hands strong enough to check/raise for value (BB could have something like T8s, but that's about it). So a check/raise probably means a set.
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#5
05-09-2005, 12:16 PM
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Re: Flop decision
I think this is a bet.
A c/r isn't hurting our hand...imo, it helps us. The free card on the turn would be pretty sweet if it happens. By checking we get a free card on the cheap streets when it's possible by betting that we get a free card on the big streets(also a bet *may* protect our hand). I realize that any hand can call profitably, but wouldn't it be good for someone to fold incorrectly?
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#7
05-09-2005, 12:30 PM
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Re: Flop decision
It's true that a checkraise helps us by folding out a lot of better hands (AJ/KJ/QJ/AT/KT/QT/JT/small pairs), but how often can we count on a checkraise, how often will the checkraise be a set or 2pair (reducing our outs/equity), and will the equity we gain from cleaning up our outs be worth more than the 2 SB's we put in to get it, and how often do these hand have to fold (that is, sometimes people will still call 2)? Also, if we're check-raised, we won't get a free card.
(I don't know the answers and would be interested in seeing the work done, but I dont feel like doing it right now.)
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#8
05-09-2005, 12:35 PM
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Re: Flop decision
I think a lot of people are overestimating the time you get a free river card by a bet on the flop -- I just don't think it happens nearly often enough to be worthwhile here. Though, most of the scare cards will give you even more outs (T,J,Q,K + clubs).
Making this play and betting most of the time was pretty much my standard play at 2/4, but at 3/6, it seems that if you don't take the free card when it's offered on the flop, you won't get it at all. However, it with all the backdoors + overcards, I think you probably do have a small equity edge here. (K,Q (no club) [6] - gives you 4 more outs) (clubs [8] - give you 9 outs) (Kc/Qc [2] - give you 13 outs) (J,T [6] - give you TP, which may be the best hand + 5 outs if not) I'm estimating 11% equity from back doors alone, not even counting when a J/T gives us the best hand. (But also not counting the times we make 2-pair and lose to a straight) Add in 7% for the gutshot (since we'll likely get odds to see the river), and there's a very slight equity edge. Good hand, bet it. -d [friggin Q beat me to it. That's what I get for working. :P )
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#9
05-09-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: Flop decision
We all know that our profit comes by our opponents making mistakes. We often talk about them calling without odds etc, but we don't often talk about them giving us free cards (outside of the "free" card play). The way to take advantage of that is to take the card. No one is going anywhere on the flop, we're not protecting anything, we'd like to see as many cards as we can for free. I don't see any value in what boils down to a semi-bluff into a huge field.
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#10
05-09-2005, 01:28 PM
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Re: Flop decision
I think we win this hand a very small percentage of the time with a pair of tens or Jacks, and a much smaller % of the time with Jack high.
That said, the majority of the value of this hand comes from the straight draws we have and the bdfd. That said, thinning the field probably hurts us more than it helps. If we hit our straight or flush...the more the merrier. Actually, getting c/r might help us if we get HU (but that probably won't happen). We're probably against something like A9, against which, we'd have close to 50/50 chance. By saying our equity increased when we bet, our we just saying, that we increase our folding equity and perhaps buy an out? I don't think betting changes our equity much at all.
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