Bunky's hand of the day. AA against a solid player.

[Alobar]

I havent read any of the responses.

Given that villian is a solid player, and you hold 2 aces, Its more likely he has an overpair than AK or AQ(he may not cap AQo either). So I think you missed out on some flop action. He is going to raise your flop bet for sure. Then you can just call and check raise him on the turn, or bet out again and then 3 bet him, but thats dependant on the card that drops. (in this case, it was a good card to try for it).

I like the river.

[Alobar]

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FWIW I put him squarely on KK or QQ, he didn't cap AK previously. I may have missed a small bet on the flop. but I sure maximized the big streets

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No you didn't (im reading the replies now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) You got basically the same amount of action on the big streets as you would have with DrG's or mine's line. (without the extra SB from the flop). You also got lucky he played his hand poorly and decided to just call the turn c/r and pop you on the river. If he had JJ or QQ (which is more likely than KK) there are lots of river cards that could have come that would have killed your action. So this time it worked out well, but I think on the long run its better the other way, especially the few times he will just have overcards (which will be less than the times he has a pocket pair)

[bunky9590]

I want to get into this a little deeper.

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bunky IMO bet-calling or c/r-calling3bet the flop disguises your hand better than just check calling the flop and going nutso on the bigbet streets.


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I agree that with your line against the typical party 5-10 players is a much better line as a default. However this guy was not the typical Party 5-10 player.

His line doesn't look that bad if HE is against the typical Party 5-10 clown either.

Lets take it a step further. If I was the one who got to cap, this whole hand plays a lot differently. If I were the PF capper, theres no getting cute, its pound pound pound and let him come to me.

Now beings the fact that HE capped and it is HU its not like I have a huge overlay. I figured by disgusing the strength of my hand he may very well go nuts on the big streets when I've shown no aggression to that point.

Now He has to read me as Aggressive, and he didn't cap AK previously (not saying he never will but lets say its not in his arsenal until I see otherwise)

That puts his capping hands at AA-JJ, I doubt TT highly if he wouldn't cap AK.

All of which I have a stranglehold on but AA. Now what can I have? Certainly more hands than that, because my three bet standards are significantly weaker than that.

Now as far as he is concerned, he has KK on a weak pretty drawless board. He has no reason to believe I have AA and highly unlikely KK for that fact. So I check call the flop. That gives him precisely 0 info on my hand, and if he had AK wouldn't a TAG fire again? Surely. I know I would. Now, my checkraise screams anything from QQ, JJ or TT, milking AK for another bet on the turn, to a flopped set (less likely) or possibly AA. So if I have QQ-TT he has me in serious trouble and I will fire the river with those hands allowing him to raise the river. He's also less likely to get three bet on the river (against most players).

Kinda hard for him to put me on AA there, until the river three bet, but by then , its too late.

The play I made in this hand is by far and away NOT my default line with AA. I just felt that this changeup against this opponenet, at this time, was deserving of a big bet extraction on the turn and river.

Tell me, are you going three bets on the river with ME? If I bet call the raise flop, and stop and go or check raise the turn? Are you seriously going three bets on the river with me? Not likely , you're too smart for that. Now will you raise my river bet the way this hand played out? You very well just might.

Its just a changeup. But really seemed right at the time.

[bunky9590]

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Your way turned out good this time but he won't have a big hand every time.

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Isn't that the whole point though? Have a read and actually use it. If I have a player like this placed squarely on AA-JJ doesn't my play make sense?

[krishanleong]

I'm assuming I was right and he had KK. Given his calling the turn cr he could have JJ-KK and KK is the only hand that will raise the river. You are stuck on the river but really you just got lucky. Against JJ and QQ you miss out on bets. I did some baysian analysis above that I still think is correct for KK-JJ that shows bet, 3-betting to be better than check-raising the turn.

Your line is much better against a typical party donk. DrGutshot's line can only be used against solids and 2+2ers.

Krishan

[bunky9590]

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I like the river.

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Yeah the river was like he had his cards exposed so it was the easiest three bet of all time. (for me anyway)

Nobody has convinced me yet that against this particular player that I get as much turn/river action if I bet into the PF capper on the flop and just smooth call the raise. Does he really go three bets on the river?

I mean the bet/call flop checkraise turn is a lot more of a power play than the check call flop checkraise turn wouldn't you agree?

Definitely confused the villain.

[bunky9590]

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I'm assuming I was right and he had KK.

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Indeed you were.

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Your line is much better against a typical party donk. DrGutshot's line can only be used against solids and 2+2ers.


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Krishan,

I respect your analysis but I have to disagree with you on this line. The typical party donk will fall for the bet/call flop, stop and go the turn and possibly three bet and may still very well raise the river. I think its really close.

I just don't know many 2+2ers who will go nuts against me on the big streets if I lead into their cap and smooth call the flop raise, and checkraise the turn. The better 2+2ers would be insane to go to three bets on the river with me. You can raise the river only if you can fold to the three bet. I just don't get many 2+2 players playing back at me lightly. They usually have the goods.

Thats why I can usually get a thinking player to overcommit to a hand that I have stomped if I play it in a mannner that does not suggest that he is beaten, rather, he thinks HE is in the commanding position with the best hand AND position.

No disrespect, but we'll have to agree to disagree on this one my friend.

[krishanleong]

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I just don't know many 2+2ers who will go nuts against me on the big streets if I lead into their cap and smooth call the flop raise, and checkraise the turn.

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This isn't gutshot's line. He is looking for a donkbet 3-bet on the turn. You can get 3 bets in on the turn against JJ-KK. You then only get 1 on the river. Once in a while KK will cap the turn or raise the river and you'll get 6. But let's ignore that. I'm saying with gutshot's line you get 4 BB on expensive streets everytime. 4 BB average against KK-JJ.

With your line, most players will clam up with JJQQ. Some will clam up with KK. But lets ignore the fact that they clam up with KK. You get 3 BB from JJ and QQ with your line. 5 BB from KK. This gives you an average of 3.66 BB.

Now I'm giving you favorable assumptions here because I'm assuming KK always raising the river in your line and that KK never puts an extra raise in with DrGutshots. Given that DrGutshots line is also better against AK I think it's the best line by quite a bit. That's what I meant when I said I hate it.

I think you are focusing too much on the river action. You don't get this river action from every hand.

Now you can change my mind. Let me know what parameter of the above baysian analysis are incorrect. Do you think Villian raises the river with QQ in your line? Do you think he won't raise the turn with DrGutshots?

I'm providing detailed mathmatical explanation of why DrGutshots line is better. I want a similiar counterargument.

Krishan

[bunky9590]

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Quote:
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I just don't know many 2+2ers who will go nuts against me on the big streets if I lead into their cap and smooth call the flop raise, and checkraise the turn.


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This isn't gutshot's line

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Actually, It is part of Doc's line if he raises the flop bet and you think he is smart enough to see the donk bet/three bet attempt. (which I truly believe he is)
If he has any reads on me whatsoever, he KNOWS I'm not a donk. if he has stats (i.e. playerview) he can confirm that fact.

That aside my friend. He said that if you think he's able to sniff through that stop and go the play is to c/r the turn. I dont see it getting three bet there, its possible but not likely. Lets say 25% of the time or 1 time in 4. (whcih would be ideal for me, because then I can smooth call the three bet and checkraise the river. Which will hardly ever get three bet. So ideally I can reasonably expect to get 5 bets on the turn/river combo.

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Now you can change my mind. Let me know what parameter of the above baysian analysis are incorrect.

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Well, I'm not gonna change your mind, as you will not likely change mine. We definitely have two different ways of approaching this game. Definitely from 2 different schools of thought. Almost like the Book smarts/street smarts type of scenario.

Actually you're numbers look fine as a baseline. He may well raise QQ every so often, I doubt he'll raise JJ, but he may now raise KK everytime so the QQ/KK is probably a wash.

The only thing I can see I missed is maybe 1 SB in this specific instance, and that's a big maybe.

I posted a hand a while ago that seperates poker players into two categories. "math guys" and "players".

While I use math when I play (as does everyone, I wont sit and crunch numbers, its weird, I play situations and I look at them in each instance as they occur. I don't look at the When this situation pops up again the variety of hands based on Bayes, blah, blah, blah. It works for some people, it doesn't do much for me. I understand the concept, I just don't do it.

I take situations one at a time on a case by case basis. So if you wanna argue math concepts, really not interested based on his probable hands. I had him squarely on KK or QQ. Turns out I was right.


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I'm providing detailed mathmatical explanation of why DrGutshots line is better. I want a similiar counterargument.


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You're gonna be waiting a long time for me to get into a bayes theorem discuassion with you. I wouldn't hold my breath my friend. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I agree with this one thing though. Dr. G's line will get you 4BB the majority of the time, and my line will get you 4BB a majority of the time, 3 BB on occassion but 5BB more often than 3BB on the big streets. I really think its so close that the math becomes like splitting hairs.

I decide to take the risk and forego a lot of flop action to gain more on the big streets based on my read. Turns out my read was right this time. Maybe its all my live play experience that has given me my "sixth sense" as those who have played any time with me live can mostly attest to.

Like I said before we most likely come from 2 different poker "schools".

I still respect your opinons and the quality of your posts is excellent.

thanks for taking the time.

[DrGutshot]

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Nobody has convinced me yet that against this particular player that I get as much turn/river action if I bet into the PF capper on the flop and just smooth call the raise. Does he really go three bets on the river?

I mean the bet/call flop checkraise turn is a lot more of a power play than the check call flop checkraise turn wouldn't you agree?

Definitely confused the villain.

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1st off - it doesn't matter if he goes 3bets on the river with you. If anything this shows that he likes to push his overpairs, and would be far mroe likely to raise the turn donkbet. If you checkraise flop, he will CERTAINLY either a)3bet (follow it up with a turn c/r) , or b) call and raise turn (follow through with a 3bet).

This would lead to
a) flop=1.5bb
turn=2bb
river=1bb = 4.5bb

b) flop=1bb
turn=3bb
river=1bb = 5bb

You're right that check calling the flop gives him 0 information about your hand. However, checkraising gives him false information about your hand, and lets you pound later streets just as hard or harder, because he will put you on a much weaker pair.

also-even if you make the same on later streets, you will still have made 1-1.5bb extra on the flop.

-DrG