Overbet Blues

[LuvDemNutz]

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Hand 3: Again, I only like this if you are overbetting very frequently and this is an opponent capable of calling you with TT a lot here. Otherwise, you're just letting off hands easy that might pay you off a decent amount.

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Why in the world would ANYONE call this with TT?

[KaneKungFu123]

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"Hand 2: Bueno. I like it. If he has a boat he must pay-off obviously. If he has AA or AK I'm not sure what he'll do, that has a lot to do with your table image and such."

if ml4l makes a smmall value raise this guy will push all in with a boat anyway. if he has AA or AK how could he possibly call??

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he could call if OP over bet bluffs frequently enough, otherwise a huge overbet in any situation warrants a "how could he possibly call" statement.

[Matt Flynn]

that's between mike and his accountant.

however, several players will call small with overcards on the flop but not the turn, yet raise pair hands a lot on the flop. against those, mike's line is reasonable: bet what is likely the best hand on the flop, then bet to get opponent out of the pot on the turn when his most likely hand is overcards. i see that on pp a lot. didn't used to see that much on pokerstars, and the ub game level was so much higher people didn't do that.

not relevant to your games.

as for #3: someone's probably pointed this out, but if you are perceived as tight +/- aggressive but without a lot of spunk you shouldn't get paid off there. against a weak player sure.

matt

[esbesb]

Seems to me overbets are most likely to work when the other guy is salivating over having made a very good or great hand and the board is such that he can't readily see himself being beaten. Examples:

1) You are in BB and call a raise or two with a 55. Flop comes AT5. I can see leading out with an overbet and being called or re-raised with a guy holding AK or AT who is licking his chops.

2) You are holding 55 in a family pot. Flop comes 5TTr. I can maybe see an overbet if you are convinced from post-flop action that there is a guy trying to slowpplay a set of tens.

A few weeks ago I was holding 55 in the big blind in a 3/6 nl game. There was a raise to 25 or so, followed by three callers. I called in BB. Flop came AK5. There was like 100 in the pot and I led out with a bet of 800. I was instantly called by the original raiser with AK. Not sure if it was the best move or not, but I thought there was a decent chance that someone had just flopped two pair and sure enough they did. Maybe I still would have got all the money if I had bet less. I don't know.

[kagame]

how the hell can you put him squarely on AK and not AA or KK

ICK

[anduril]

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Again, I only like this if you are overbetting very frequently and this is an opponent capable of calling you with TT a lot here

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capable or dumb enough to?

[Ulysses]

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Why in the world would ANYONE call this with TT?

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capable or dumb enough to?

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Let's say you know your opponent will only do this w/ exactly 9T here? Would you call? I hope so. Start from there and start working out ranges of hands and frequencies and then you can figure out against which type of opponent you would want to call with TT.

[anduril]

perhaps I'm missing something El Diablo, but working out similar hands to 109 don't make me want to call with 1010 against it. If ML4L does this play with 109 (I assume of spades, but possibly not), you have to assume he does it with 76s, 65s, A7s, etc. Against these hands it's an approximate coin flip except against 109 obviously. With the dead money in the pot already it makes a call correct. But those arent the only hands ML4L can do this with. He can have a King, AA, or obviously a set. So in other words if I am villain I'm about to put all my money in when 1/3 the time I'm in horrible shape, and 1/2 the time it's a coin flip. That's why I think you'd be insane to call with 1010 there and why the opponent would have to be a poor player and why an all-in overbet is incorrect to extract the most money. El D if this makes no sense please explain. Usually your posts are simple and to the point but I think you can expand your point a little. Thanks.

[Ulysses]

If the guy will never push w/ a set, it becomes more attractive to call him. If the guy will always push w/ a set, it beceoms less attractive to call him. You decide how likely this action means he has each of the types of hands you describe and act accordingly. This is not rocket science.

[esbesb]

Well, obviously, I can't and I don't. But I'm not laying a set down on that board. Are you?