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#22
02-28-2005, 08:13 PM
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Re: 40-80 hand #1
[ QUOTE ]
could you share your reasoning diablo? [/ QUOTE ] I don't see him making an extra bet with this raise often. I see him occassionally being blown off the best hand by exactly the type of draw he was up against. I see him occassionally getting blown off the second best hand by a better hand without getting a chance to suck out on the river (losing 2 bets instead of winning 3 or more). There are other scenarios, of course, and I haven't worked out the math, but my hunch is that calling is better. 
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#24
03-01-2005, 02:24 AM
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Re: 40-80 hand #1
i think 4handed, if the guy had an actual hand, he would 3bet you too often on the turn for it to be really profitable. If he had a (monster) draw, like he did, i think he would continue to bet the river. Even if he thinks you are set on calling down, I really don't think JQc, 98c, etc are going to check because its pretty much 0% for him to win.
I think pretty much, raising the turn will open you up to lose more when your behind, and doesn't give you a chance to win more.
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#25
03-01-2005, 08:56 AM
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Re: 40-80 hand #1
FWIW - the SB is a 54% fav on the flop. Add in the fact that he's getting a bet on the end when he makes it and doesn't have to pay off when he misses, I think waiting until the turn is a "blank" is routine once you call the flop bet.
The only time he has a T here, he has a flush draw too (game theory considerations aside). I like your line.
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