Can't wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO

[thatpfunk]

You gain absolutely nothing from betting the turn. Wait one more street [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Loci]

Hey bro...
I have the two most important comment to date.
-First: Great choice of title for this post.
-Second: Nice play.

E

[AZK]

Hey all,

Thanks for the criticism, most of you are right. A couple of things:

Turn bet isn't that big, it's 300 into a ~500ish pot. That isn't that big? Right?

I'm betting this because yes, he is drawing to a two-outer probably, but I don't know what yet. Villian is also checking AK here, even though he doesn't reraise AK in the first place I'm 70% sure. If I can get him to lay down AK, the turn is the place, not the river, if I don't bet the turn when he does have AK I think I cost myself the pot, cause we will surely get to showdown someway. Villian probably thinks I have AT or something. So bottom line if he has AK, I want to be now I think. If he has KK - JJ, I have a really hard time, betting/calling the river if a K,Q or J hits. So yes it's a two outer, but I don't know which one, I want to take the pot down now and not have to showdown, if paint his on the river and bets take place, I'm not ahead.

As for the comments about him playing me blah blah. This player is as simple and straight forward as can be. He hammers when he has something good, and checks when he doesn't, the last time he check-raised was probably in the 50s and it was probably by mistake. If he had a set of Aces he would have bet it, he will not check-raise me. Just trust me. Villian can't get more straight forward, so I like the turn bet. Probably a few things I left out, but I'll reply later. I probably only do this against really old predictable guys, or new young weaktight players who are playing with scared money.

[LuvDemNutz]

Do you really think he'd fold AK here?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Your thinking when he has AK only makes sense if he will call 150 but fold 300. I think that is extremely unlikely. 300 into a 500 pot is not a huge bet, but he is either drawing to 2 outs, in which case 150 is enough to give him poor odds, or you are behind and 300 won't move him off his hand, so why waste 150? Maybe betting 150 will seem weak and he will call with KK, too, which would be an advantage and there is no advantage to 300 over 150 since you are very unlikely to move him off of AK. If he calls your 150 and you think that shows AK, but that he can lay it down on the river, bet big on the river. But 150 gives you just as much info on the turn as 300, with less risk and with greater possibility of being called by a hand that you are beating, in my opinion.

[freemoney]

I mean you know the player better than I do, but I don't think he would play AK like this, if you really think that he would and fold to your turn bet then that makes this bet a much better option then I previously thought.

[Cornell Fiji]

I have seen this player before (obviously not this exact guy but you know what I mean) and in my experience he has JJ/QQ/KK/AA and he is not reraising you with AA.

An important point that I think you (and other replies) are wrong about is that this supertight preflop player tends to get married to the hands that he does play and will tend to overplay them. You will get his stack 3/4 of the time when you hit the miracle KJT flop (you will win when he has AA/KK/JJ) and will also get his stack when 3 low clubs fall. You will not get his stack when 2 clubs fall and you hit your flush but might win the hand if a K high club draw flops. He is going to bet any flop and then check the turn if he has QQ/JJ but bet again when he has AA/KK so half the time you will be able to take the pot from him on the turn and you will know exactly when you can do this because he will check to you.

The pf call is boarderline and I think that it is a mistake that you should make given your table image (when you are running over the table it is often profitable to call a small pf reraise so that people dont start reraiseing you pf.) Although this is slightly -EV I like the call (It would be the correct call if you both had 2k behind - sorry but I don't want to do the math to figure out what the cut off stack size would be to make this a +EV call without metagame considerations)

The flop call is automatic because you are ahead of 3/4 of the hands that he will have and he will not check a set of As on the turn because of the flush draw.

The turn bet IS TOO BIG. However, I think that you SHOULD bet the turn. I think that if he has KK/QQ/JJ you are not going to get paid off on any river that he doesn't hit. He is check/folding without a set here. He does not have AK, this rock is not making this raise however your assumption that he will fold to 300 with AK is a terrible one because rocks like this will get married to their hands and will not let go if they hit. I would bet 100 here. The bet is so suspiciously small that he might call with KK because he is angry that his ace magnets drew an ace. Most of the time he will fold to this bet however.

I think a bet of 100 on the turn is the correct play because it is small enough that you might get called out of anger but also will end the hand if he is planning on check/folding if he does not improve (the most likely scenario.)

-Steve

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is passive thinking rock, he will not call a turn bet. He very well might call a river bet. I might fall into this category when I am not playing my A game. With KK I would fire this flop, and check the turn and see how the hand developed.

[/ QUOTE ]

most rocks are way tighter than 'angry dave', esp. on the later streets. particularly ones that buyin deep and play no hands, they tend to be the essence of nut peddlers.

[AZK]

Hmm. I like your thinking and perhaps 300 is too big. How do you play the river when a K, Q, J hits, and he makes it 200 - 500? I was trying to end the hand now since if any of those cards hit on the river I don't feel so good. I know it doesn't make sense, and obviously if he is drawing to 2 outs I want him to stay in and call bets.

[Light bulb clicks on] I suppose he wouldn't bet the river hard unless he actually had a hand since he's a rock, so he isn't making a move on me, so I have to believe him and have nothing to worry about. Problem solved I guess.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
plus I want to flop the nuts and take him for 1300 when he flops 2nd nuts.



How are you going to do that? Did he re-raise you with KJs? or are you counting on a K J T flop? Then, he'd have the 3rd nuts (KKK), and he wouldn't get busted with it. He can't have a hand that'll make the 2nd nuts when AcQc makes the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not to nitpick, but as far as nuts to 2nd nuts go, I wouldn't mind an AAQ flop when I have AQ and he has QQ [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]