Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

2/5/5 Motorcity, I'm running the table as we are pretty short handed, 5 or 6 handed and I'm the only one that seems to have a spine so far. I'm making a decent amount of money raising with any two playable cards from any position and potting the flop. Anyway I have about 1300 in front. Villian is an old guy who DOES NOT PLAY ANY HANDS. When I say he doesn't play any, I mean he has played 1 hand and probably sat 8 orbits in the last few hours. He gets up everytime the BB comes around to him, disappears for 20 minutes and then comes back. It's the most ironic thing I have ever seen. He sits down with a nice collection of purple/black/green chips, stacks of them, and doesn't ever put them into play. He is a rock of all rocks, I can't figure him out since I have seen him play 1 hand with no showdown. I'm assuming he must be the nittiest of nut peddlers, he is so straight forward it's written on his face. He could just be waiting for someone to get it all in with preflop, but I don't know. He has about 2000.

I open raise to 25 from the CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he reraises me to 75 from the SB. I call. Hmm, a reraise, I put him squarely on AA - QQ, maybe JJ. That's about it. So yes, I know I'm crushed, but I have position and I'm positive I can get him to lay down an overpair on a scary board, plus I want to flop the nuts and take him for 1300 when he flops 2nd nuts.

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He throws in a flock of green chips, I think 6 or 7. I flat call. I plan on taking this away from him on the turn assuming any diamond, J, 9, 8, T hit.

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Doh. He checks to me, what? If he had AA he would keep firing. KK, huh? I make it 300. He folds. I would have given up if he called/raised.

Eh? I suppose my question is what % of the time does he need to lay down for this to be correct? I'm not the best at crunching these numbers. I also think I'm writing this so one of you can talk some sense into me when I know I'm calling with a hand that is 70/30 at best.

I think I'm getting a little too cocky for my own good recently, only in this game because I feel so confident in the awful play of my opponents. If I sat in a different casino I'd play smart for a while. Turning into a LAG with position, no longer afraid to get the money in/nut peddler. Does everyone go through this at some point?

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

why not just fold preflop?

let the rock win his small amounts and steal off him later when he doesn't have a hand.

The way you played it feels a bit risky. you would need a very specific flop to play it this way.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
2/5/5 Motorcity, I'm running the table as we are pretty short handed, 5 or 6 handed and I'm the only one that seems to have a spine so far. I'm making a decent amount of money raising with any two playable cards from any position and potting the flop. Anyway I have about 1300 in front. Villian is an old guy who DOES NOT PLAY ANY HANDS. When I say he doesn't play any, I mean he has played 1 hand and probably sat 8 orbits in the last few hours. He gets up everytime the BB comes around to him, disappears for 20 minutes and then comes back. It's the most ironic thing I have ever seen. He sits down with a nice collection of purple/black/green chips, stacks of them, and doesn't ever put them into play. He is a rock of all rocks, I can't figure him out since I have seen him play 1 hand with no showdown. I'm assuming he must be the nittiest of nut peddlers, he is so straight forward it's written on his face. He could just be waiting for someone to get it all in with preflop, but I don't know. He has about 2000.

I open raise to 25 from the CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he reraises me to 75 from the SB. I call. Hmm, a reraise, I put him squarely on AA - QQ, maybe JJ. That's about it. So yes, I know I'm crushed, but I have position and I'm positive I can get him to lay down an overpair on a scary board, plus I want to flop the nuts and take him for 1300 when he flops 2nd nuts.

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He throws in a flock of green chips, I think 6 or 7. I flat call. I plan on taking this away from him on the turn assuming any diamond, J, 9, 8, T hit.

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Doh. He checks to me, what? If he had AA he would keep firing. KK, huh? I make it 300. He folds. I would have given up if he called/raised.

Eh? I suppose my question is what % of the time does he need to lay down for this to be correct? I'm not the best at crunching these numbers. I also think I'm writing this so one of you can talk some sense into me when I know I'm calling with a hand that is 70/30 at best.

I think I'm getting a little too cocky for my own good recently, only in this game because I feel so confident in the awful play of my opponents. If I sat in a different casino I'd play smart for a while. Turning into a LAG with position, no longer afraid to get the money in/nut peddler. Does everyone go through this at some point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not just check the turn? Of the range of hands you described, you are drawing dead to one and way ahead of all the others. Given your description, do you think he is going to pay you off with a worse hand on the turn? It seems like a check on the turn and a river value bet if checked to is a good play. The only hand you could move him off that you are ahead of is perhaps AK, but it doesn't seem like worth playing such a big pot as your turn line will create.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

"I think I'm getting a little too cocky for my own good recently, only in this game because I feel so confident in the awful play of my opponents. If I sat in a different casino I'd play smart for a while. Turning into a LAG with position, no longer afraid to get the money in/nut peddler. Does everyone go through this at some point?

[/ QUOTE ]"

Ha - I certainly have. On the hand my take is as follows:
You have the "rock" on a small range of hands (probably AA-QQ, or maybe AK) after the reraise. If I were to play a pot in this situation, I would want a small pair or some little connecting cards. The reason I don't like your call is because AQ does not play well against the range of hands that the villain is likely to have in this situation. Although you do have position, I don't think there are very many good flops for you other than a made straight or a big draw.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

He shouldn't check the turn because any hand that villain has that is behind, will beat him if he gets anything, and will check/fold if the miss.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

I might not understand your post:

"because any hand that villain has that is behind, will beat him if he gets anything, and will check/fold if the miss. "

Look again at the original hand range. Are you sure you mean what I think you mean? That villan will call a turn bet drawing to two outs but fold the river if you check the turn to him?

What?

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

The original hand range was AA-JJ.
We're ahead of KK-JJ and drawing dead to AA.
However, if we check behind the turn, and he misses the river, he's only going to be playing at us on the river with a better hand (if he spikes a set of K-J).
He won't call any bets either without having us beat.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

So your contention is that he will either not realize he is far behind with the ace on board and or knowingly call a turn bet while behind drawing to what is likely two outs?

You don't think it is more likely he will call a river bet if you check the turn? If he has KK you don't think there is any chance he might put you on QQ and blocking bet the river? Or call a half pot bet on a river blank?

I completely disagree with your analysis, especially the contention that he will check/fold the river with KK-JJ. I think the rest of the board will likely agree with me.

In fact, I think betting the turn big is very poor. If he is smart he will raise you here representing AA and exploit his image to make you fold. You cannot call a large raise here.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

No. I don't think villain is calling a turn bet. I also don't believe he's betting/calling on the river without improvement. And any improvement that he gets, he'll be beating us. Sorry if I wasn't clear originally.

Re: Can\'t wait to get flamed for this...AQs in the CO
 

I think your turn bet has very low expectation the times you are ahead (you even admit yourself that it is zero), and gives yourself a remote (but very serious) possibilty of being bluffed out with the best hand. Let's say 15% of the time he chooses to raise -- you cannot call.

This is clearly a way-ahead-way-behind scenerio, and the risk of being played back at is greater than the need to protect against two outs at a maximum. You can give the guy a 1-20 shot to catch up to prevent this.

Also, you can't discount the possibility that he will put YOU on a draw and call a river bet on the end. In my experience many opponents will auto-call a reasonable river bet when the action has proceeded in the way I suggest in my previous post.

I really do not think it is close.