How Would You Play This Hand?

[West]

Well if a spade falls, or the board pairs, I can check behind. Even if all two pair and set hands are going to fold to any bet on the river, I think the fact that the BB is more likely to have a smaller flush than the nut flush, combined with the low likelihood of him checking the nut flush on the river, means I've still got a good value betting opportunity. If opponent does push in with a check raise, you can always reevaluate then.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
If BB had a made nut flush, why does he make this play? Would he do this just to test the waters to see if Hero has the straight flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

He might do this to test the waters to see if hero will call a push.

(BTW, Go Cocks!)

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no way a tough opponent is going to check and call a bet on the river with 2pr or a set.
The tough opponent might also c/r you all in with the naked ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah. Slow down.

Yes, many tough players will call a properly-sized river bet with top two or a set. Your statement is absolutely untrue.

And as for the naked ace check-raise on the river, this is a play I don't see much of anybody making, especially after you've called the turn bet. I mean, what possible hand does he put you on that calls the turn raise, then bets on the river, and then lays down to a check raise?

He may have you pegged as weak-tight, but he's not psychic.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there is no way a tough opponent is going to check and call a bet on the river with 2pr or a set.
The tough opponent might also c/r you all in with the naked ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah. Slow down.

Yes, many tough players will call a properly-sized river bet with top two or a set. Your statement is absolutely untrue.

And as for the naked ace check-raise on the river, this is a play I don't see much of anybody making, especially after you've called the turn bet. I mean, what possible hand does he put you on that calls the turn raise, then bets on the river, and then lays down to a check raise?

He may have you pegged as weak-tight, but he's not psychic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well a tough opponent wouldn't check the river with 2pr or a set, so if he checks the river, he either has the nuts or nothing. Neither of them are going to call the river. A tough opponent would likely send out a blocking bet on the river with all his other possible holdings.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Well a tough opponent wouldn't check the river with 2pr or a set, so if he checks the river, he either has the nuts or nothing. Neither of them are going to call the river. A tough opponent would likely send out a blocking bet on the river with all his other possible holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, alrighty then.

I agree with everything here except the notion that he will not bet with the nuts.

Let's say this tough player is headsup against, oh, say, YOU. He knows that you understand the fact that a bet might very well mean a blocking bet, as outlined above. He has the nuts. He bets out for value as opposed to checking, where he knows that you know you're not getting paid if he has nothing, and you're getting murdered by the nuts.

I think a decent number of tough players will bet out at a blank on the river, especially against the right opponent.

[West]

Reraise 15,000. If he does happen to have the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], make him pay a bad price for his draw (or move all his chips in) or fold. Same with two pair or a set. Unless I think my opponent may potentially bluff big into me on the river if I call on the turn, I think there is too much money in the pot to flat call and let my opponent have a now free chance to draw out on the river....only nut flush is beating me on the turn, but many more hands could be raising me...stay aggressive, make them pay.

And again, it's significant that the opponent is the BB, rather than a limper...

[adanthar]

If I put the BB exactly on a straight flush/A flush and play it that way, I should probably quit poker now. I don't doubt that he *can* have it, but chances are he doesn't and is bluffing or semibluffing with something else (quite possibly a smaller flush in which case I take his chips).

The question is if he calls a big turn reraise with anything less than a flush. I don't think he does if he's that good. Another thing I am considering is that while the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may semibluff here, if he makes it on the river he won't make a bet I can't call, so letting him see a cheapish card is not something I'm horribly scared of.

With all that in mind, I think I reraise another 5K or so. If he is bluffing, a tough player will probably give up when he gets called on the turn so I'm not likely to see more of his chips anyway; if he is semibluffing and has any sort of draw, I want more chips in there now before we see a river. If he pushes, I call and hope I see a Q high flush.

(Why 5K, not 15K? 15K is awfully close to pot committing me if he reraises again and at *that* point the nuts is a lot more likely.)

If he calls, I'll make a smallish value bet on a blank river. If he checkraises *that*, well, I'll think about it when the time comes.

[Deorum]

I raise another 10k and strongly consider mucking if my
opponent comes over the top for the rest of his chips. I
do not want to give my opponent a chance to fill up on the
river if he does have a set or two pair, but if I get
raised again I will have a hard time believing that my
opponent has something other than the ace high flush. If
he calls, I will check behind on any river other than the
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. If he calls and pushes the river, I will have a
very difficult decision, and will have to think a while,
with my decision depending on how I felt about the way he
bet, and the card that came off. I still have 20k after the
raise if I decide to fold, which at the 100-200 level still
gives me time to rebuild. But my reasoning could be wrong;
I am not a very good no limit player. Perhaps raising 15k
instead of 10k would do a better job of preventing him from
seeing the river if he had a set or two pair or the naked
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but if I decide to muck, I would rather have 20k
left than 15k. He might read through the 10k raise and push
with one of these hands, though. I am uncertain of whether
the 10k bet or 15k bet would be better at accomplishing what
I want.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If checked to on the river, I check behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ok i think your whole post was way to passive for my taste but thats ok i win more money on this hand and you get knocked out less but the above line dosnt make any sense. if you are checked to you 99% have the better hand and should bet out 10 000 because 15%-30% of the time you are called by a worse hand and the rest of the time you don't have to show your whole cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I glossed over a lot of my thought process, so let me go into more detail. (You still may think I am being too passive, but at least you will have a more complete picture of my resoning.)


First lets recap the action:

The BB got a free pass in a multi-way pot. We don't know exactly how many people played, but let's say 5 or 6 to the flop, since that fits.

The flop comes a ragged two tone T62. Checked around to the hero makes a pot sized bet (probably in last to act, but there could be one other active player behind him). The big blind calls, getting 2-1, with several people to act behind him.

Turn comes 8 completing the flush. BB checks, Hero bets about 2/3 the pot, BB c/r giving the hero around 2.5:1 on a call.

So, what could the BB have here?

Axs for the nut flush is one posibility. The flop is pretty tricky for this hand, but certainly this could be his hand with the play through the turn.

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x where x matches the non spade on the board. Again, this fits the action though again this is a tricky hand on the flop. I think if this is the case the T on the flop is a spade, since TPTK + bd flush would probably fire a bet at this flop. Maybe the x does not have to pair, but if BB calls with just a backdoor flush he probably calls with any 2 and tries to take the pot away later.

2p: Again, certainly possible. The BB could have anything, and the flop is not very threatening. Easy to see slow playing this since the flush is the only plausible draw. This also fits with the turn c/r.

Set: The 2p analysis plays just as well for a set here.

79: Unlikely that the BB would have stuck around with a gut shot unless he was planning on making a move regardless.

2 random cards: He may have put the hero on a steal and was planning to make a move, which he did on the turn after a scare card came. (And he didn't even need a scare card, since he called on the flop and really could have anything.)

2 non ace spades: This is also possible.

Now, how will the BB react to a raise with each of these.

With the nut flush, hero is hosed. He is losing at least his his raise and possibly his whole stack.

With any other hand, BB has to realize that he has at most 10 outs if he is behind, and is at best a 4:1 dog to win the hand. If he thinks that the hero is capable of bluffing here, then maybe he makes a call or maybe not, because there is a good chance he will face a tough river decision if he calls the reraise. With the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he knows he has at worst 6 nut outs, but then it is also more likely that Hero has a big made hand if he raised without the nut flush card.

All in all, I don't see the BB playing on without the nuts here very often. It is just a horrible spot for him.

Now, hero knows he is way ahead or drawing dead here. If he is way ahead, he is better than 4-1 to win the pot, and BB may even be drawing dead with a smaller flush. BB will likely make a blocking bet if he has a hand, and may even make a post oak bluff on the end. Also, if he has the nuts he will probably make about the same size bet he would make in the above cases or try for a check raise.

So, what is the cost of giving a free card here?

Let's take the worst case scenario: BB is 4-1 against. Lets assume he bets 10K on the end if he hits, and mixes up betting 10k and checking if he misses.

So, 20% of the time you lose the 23k in the pot at the turn plus 10k on the end.

80% of the time you win an extra 5k.

So, in the case where you are a 4-1 favorite going in, your EV by not betting is .2*33 + .8*5, or about -2.2K. So, IF you know he has top set raising the turn is correct.

When you consider that he may have hands like the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 outs) 2p (4 outs), nothing at all (0 outs), a straight (0 outs), a smaller flush (0 outs) and that he may bet any of these on the river, I cannot see how raising the turn is right even if you know he does not have the nuts.

(Granted, I am assuming that BB will lay down a lot of hands here, but really, what choice does he have? You are both tough players unless he thinks you will get involved with 40% of your chips on a bluff or semi-bluff when you have a deep stack fairly often, he has to respect your reraise).

So, to sum up, I see this as a case where you are way ahead or way behind (actually drawing dead if you are behind). You will make more when you are ahead by calling down and lose less when you are behind.

I did not go into the case of calling the turn and betting when checked to on the river, but I think Nick B. has covered that pretty well. If you bet the river in this case and BB pushes, what do you do? Call and hope he is bluffing with a naked ace?

[knifeandfork]

hi johhny beef,
i think your line is one of the worst nothing personal of course. minraising and folding on the turn seems criminal as does folding if called on the river. our players hand is fairly well disguised and if he is up against another flush it rates to probably be a hand he is getting paid off by not the other way around imho. depending on the read of my opponent i would either call if i could expect to get bet into on the river (a straight or two pair that might be currently trying to charge me for the 4th spade) or raise if i think he has a set, or As/pair x). 15,000 buy in or not im going to have to be facing a monster bet to laydown the king high flush in this unraised pot even if its from the big blind. i think my default move here is too raise it up to about 11-12k ( im not too good at math but this i think gives him improper odds to draw to a paired board or 4th spade.) if i lose him on the turn thats life i just dont think a tough player is going to bluff again on the river if you smooth call. and finally if he has the nut flush i hope i make the read on the turn or river and can get away but im not sure if i would. once again ive only gotten this far in the thread and im not trying to be disrespectful just mho.
jason