15/30 PP 77 perfectly?

[astroglide]

They either have an ace or they don't. You aren't getting action if they don't, and if they do, you'll get excessive action.

i don't understand why you're even referencing that thread when the situations are completely different. are you saying "either they have AA KK or AQ or they don't"? there are shitloads of hands that will stick around on the turn for a raise that shouldn't.

[1800GAMBLER]

I think this case is the same, it's very likely he has AQ AA KK and it's very likely with those hands he'll cap also with the board being Qragrag raindow anyone who called a bet is likely to have a queen and will call another bet, and if they do have something like Ax they are probably going to fold for just the one extra bet.

I wish i just said that at first [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[astroglide]

it's not remotely the same. Axx and Qxx are completely different. you're putting him on AA/KK/AQ because he raised preflop and raised the flop? that is absurd. there is a massive range of hands people would play in that exact same way like AK or 99 - and most people will call a turn raise with those too.

[1800GAMBLER]

I'm not putting him exclusively on that range of hands, i'm just saying a decent percentage he has them.

Lets put this in a very simple way and make a few averages/assumptions. Say it averages as regardless of the action between me and UTG we get an average of 1 coldcaller who comes all the way.

He needs to have AA KK AQ 33% of the time.

The math:

Raising the flop:

x% of the time UTG has AA KK AQ and he caps (2sb * 2), bets the turn, i raise and SB/whomever gets trapped. (2bb * 2); total = 6bbs.

(1 - x)% of the time UTG has AK JJ - 88. I 3 bet (2 * 1sb), he calls and checks the turn and we once again trap SB. (2 * 1bb); total = 3bbs.

Calling the flop:

Both times i'm going to call then raise the turn (notice the very nice assumption of UTG will bet 88 AK again on the turn into was) in both of these cases we'll go 4bbs.

Net: The x percentage he has AA KK AQ i get an extra 2bb. The 1 - x percentage he has 88 JJ AK i miss out on 1bb.

[astroglide]

there is a much more decent percentage that he has something other than AA/KK/AQ. preflop raise means nothing, flop raise is standard after a preflop raise.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
flop raise is standard after a preflop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe that at all, that means you never see someone raise preflop then just call the flop when it's bet into them and someone has called.

[astroglide]

it is horrifically common and would be done with a wider range of hands. TT/99/AK is a more common combination than AA/KK/AQ just because of the presence of the queen.

[SA125]

astro - "you're putting him on AA/KK/AQ because he raised preflop and raised the flop? that is absurd. there is a massive range of hands people would play in that exact same way like AK or 99 - and most people will call a turn raise with those too."

I agree. I respect Gambler's analysis of any hand, but he's been reinforcing this narrow read through the whole thread and I don't understand why either. His links to other posts were informative, even though Clark's suggestion to c/r the flop in that big pot out of position with a set of 2's seems like apples and oranges here.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When he states this :

If i flop a set i expect to be able to win a big pot here.

the answer to your question is yes.


[/ QUOTE ]

Who doesn't expect to win a big pot when flopping a set? Are you agreeing that preflop is raise or call? Seems to me that a fold is in order. Out of position with multiple players who can still possibly find a real hand and no gurantee that the donkey or the blinds will come along. Further, hero is playing against an early position raiser who most likely has two overcards or a bigger pair. Meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

EASY FOLD preflop. I may reraise (5%) when I feel extra witty.

[BabyJesus]

Does everyone agree that 77 should be folding in this spot? I do think i have a leak playing small and medium pairs preflop. Based on my read of MP3 it still doesn't turn this into a call? I expect him to limp about 80% of the time or more. With all the cold calls i figure some other people will come into the pot with random suited connectors and the blinds are fairly loose preflop and will come along as well. As for the river, easy call? try to raise for value? or trust my read and muck? I'm going with just call down. My worst fear was SB having some crappy Q and doing something stupid like c/r and i get trapped for 2 more bets if the preflop raiser does in fact have AQ or AA.