10/20 ATs Hand My Friend Played

[sthief09]

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I don't know, I guess I'm thinking of this in terms of online play. If his read says that 90% of the time this l-rr must mean AA or KK, then check-raising is the way to go, but if he'd ever do this with QQ, JJ or somesuch, I think betting is better. (edit: because you may clean up outs and failing to clean up outs does you no harm)

This is my 4000th post.

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that was my reaction. first he ran down the situation, told me he bet, and I said "good job." then he told me the guy is loose and passive, and doesn't like open raising. now I feel like check-raising is best because your A outs are good only something like 2-5% of the time.

congrats, not hopefully Sample Size Man won't have to reach 4,000.

[Evan]

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I'd prefer it to be capped 4 ways than 2 bets six-ways.

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It's not going to get capped 4 ways first of all, so stop thinking it will. I know these players probably aren't good, but we have to be realistic here. Getting 2 bets 6 ways is ideal here. You're geting 5-1 on your money as a 4.75-1 dog to have the NUTS on the TURN. Can someone actually give a good, realistic reason to bet this flop? Bison, I'm looking at you.

[exist]

i'd say this is a clear checkraise. the only way i see this "clear up your ace outs (CUYAO)" idea working is if it checked to LP and you check raise making the limp reraiser fold AQ, AJ. otherwise i think CUYAO is not important here. try to get as many bets from as many people as possible in on this flop.

[bisonbison]

Bison, I'm looking at you.

Ruh roh!

Um. I already explained my reasoning, sans percentage read on how often this is AA or KK. If you bet and UTG raises:

A) the remaining players are unlikely to fold in a large pot, so you get value on your huge draw.
B) you can 3-bet.
C) If you can fold a hand with any piece of the board and increase your chances of winning this hand sans flush, it's really good.

That's it. I already explained this, and I think the strategy has more value the more hands he'd l-rr here. If it's really a 95% chance that you can't win without the flush, then clearly c/ring is better, but I don't know that I trust that percentage.

[Gatts]

I'm just wondering what the most common situation is when we bet out. We've pretty much established we'll face the field with 2 cold. How much is it thinning the field? Are we even sure everyone's calling one on the flop anyway?

[Evan]

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A) the remaining players are unlikely to fold in a large pot, so you get value on your huge draw.

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Okay, this is the second time this has been said. Am I the only one that think that forving the field to call to cold here is gonna knock out at least 2 of them?

[bisonbison]

Evan, it's all hinging on point C. And that hinges on your read of his limp-reraising standards. You're acting like betting is the craziest thing you've heard all week, but I said if you're dead certain this is KK or AA, then c/ring is the way to go.

[Evan]

I guess when i leave the confines of party and go to a live game i'm used to very passive play where a limp reraise always means AA or KK, usually AA.

[sthief09]

give Nate is avatar back

[chesspain]

Betting out can't be right here. In fact, Feeney talks about the common mistake of a player with a flopped flush draw betting into a preflop raiser, who then predictably raises the flop to severely narrow the field.